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lines are crowded, the country lanes become four-lane death traps, the fishing streams get polluted. The need for TV talent runs hopelessly ahead of the talent supply. Even the elephants and marlins have to be rationed. The theaters and courts and courses and pools and beaches and restaurants are congested with people who have just as much right to be there as you do. Only the cathedrals are still empty.

Because playtime is available to all, it comes back into perspective. As a by-product of a busy, productive, relevant life, leisure is a boon and a balm. As the purpose of life, it is a bust.

More Interesting Jobs in the Future?

What lies beyond affluence, for most people is not likely to be the use of their guaranteed income to finance their weekends and vacations. Young people especially will want to use their economic security as a launching pad for adventure, for action. And most

of them will find their adventure, not primarily in their leisure time. but in their working time-if they can tell the difference.

Luckily, in post-industrial society there should be much more room for workaday adventure. As new machines. new kinds of energy and fast computers take over the drudgery men and women-and children-used to endure, what is left for people to do is the interesting, policy part of each task -the creative, planning, imagining. figuring-out kind of work. The fast but stupid computers which after all can only count from zero to one, have to be fed by our more complex and agile human brains. their routinized wonders to perform. And the handling of relations among people has to be a rapidly growing industry when nearly everyone becomes, through education, a sovereign thinker and communicator -and communications makes remoteness and

Harlan Cleveland

The author. Harlan Cleveland, has held many posts during his career, including that of US. Ambassador to the North Atlantic Treaty Organization and President of the University of Hawaii.

While Director of the US China Aid Program in 1948, he first used in a speech title the phrase Revolution of Rising Expectations," which is attributed to him in Bartlett's Familiar Quotations. In 1961 President Kennedy made him Assistant Secretary of State for International Organization Affairs and in this capacity he worked closely with Adlai Stevenson, then US Ambassador to the United Nations


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Cleveland's continuing professional fascination with administrative complexity is reflected in his 1972 book The Future Executive (Harper & Row, $9.95), which is widely used in business and public-service executive training programs. (The book is available from the World Future Society's book service.)

Cleveland currently is Director of the Aspen Institute's Program in International Affairs. His article is adapted from remarks he made at a panel on The Quality of Life in the Year 2000"

Cleveland's current address is: Aspen Institute for Humanistic Studies Rose dale Road, Post Office Box 2820, Princeton, New Jersey 08540.

matter of choice and not of geography or fate.

How do we make sure there are as many interesting jobs as there are interested people? My prediction is that we will do it because people will insist on it. If we in the private sector can't find interesting work to do for those who want to do it, the people will push their government into the vacuum that's what happens whenever in our history the private sector fails to get something done that the people want done

One way to spread the jobs around has just been suggested in a report by the Joint Economic Committee of the United States Congress. If everyone in the work force were entitled to a sabbatical year-for upgrading of skills. changing their line of work or refreshment of the spirit-that would open up more than 14% more jobs, or twice the number represented by our 7% unemployment.

Who will be in charge of all this progress? In overall charge. no one: for growing complexity seems to re quire a constantly looser and more fluid administration of human affairs. But this, too, is good news for those who worry about whether there will be enough interesting work to go around. The general management of the United States is already spread among a million leaders or more, dealing with each other in mostly horizontal relationships. The post-industrial society won't work unless literally millions of men and women are acting in their own places and functions as selfstarting organizers and energizers and innovators. Each year more and more Americans are drawn into positions as private and public leaders-not just more of us, but a greater proportion of us My impression is that the same is true in varying degrees in other industrial societies.

So. in the 23 years from now to the Year 2000, and beyond, fewer and fewer of us will have an excuse for adVocating a short day in a short week in a short year. The tasks that machines cannot do will be creative enough to lure men and women into work schedules that are lengthened by the sheer excitement of the work to be done.

In such a society. the people who seek the easy jobs and the shortest hours of work will die of man's most easily curable disease-absence of adventure, suffocation of the spirit, and boredom of the brain. The age at which they die of these avoidable maladies will hardly matter: 'Died at 40, buried at 70 will be their epitaph. I don't know about you But Im looking forward to the Year 2000.

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a journal of forecasts, trends and ideas about the future.

Editor: Edward S. Cornish Assistant Editor Jerry Richardson Research Director Lane Jennings Art Director. Boy Mason Graphic Arta Diane Smirnow Staff Photographer Mico Delianova Editorial Assistant: Hugh Myers Chairman, Advisory Editorial Board: Julius Cahs Contributing Editors Bally Woodhall Cornish (General) Elliot Fraugamil (General), Barbara Hub(Peace Research), William 7 Gay (Utopias Ralph bard Images of Man, John Huss (General), Joseph P Martine (Technological Forecasting): Roy Mason (Architecture); Jay S. Mendell (Innovation John Waring (Technological Trends)

Advertising and Circulation Peter Zuckerman

THE FUTURIST is published bimonthly by the World Puture Society An Association for the Study of Alterna tive Futures The Society is a nonprofit educational and scientific organization founded in 1966 Articles in Society publications reflect the views of their authors or persons quoted The Society acts as an impartial clearinghouse for a variety of different views and does not take positions on what will happen or should happen in the future.

Directors Arnold Barach, Executive Editor, Changing
Times Magazine, Orville L. Freeman, President. Business
International Corporation; Barbara Hubbard, Organizing
Director, Committee for the Future. Sel M Linowits
Senior Partner, Coudert Brothers, formerly Chairman of
the Board, The Xeres Corporation, Carl H Madden.
Professor of Besnomica, American University, formerly
Chief Economist, Chamber of Commerce of the US
Michael Michaelis, Senior Consultant, Arthur D. Little,
Inc Glenn T Seaberg, University Professor of Chemistry,
University of California at Berkeley, formerly Chairman,
UB Atomic Energy Commission. Rowan A Wakefield.
Principal, Wakefield Washington Associates, Inc. for.
merly Vice President, Aspen Institute.


Edward & Cornish, President: Frank Snowden Hopkins, Vice President; Peter Zuckerman, Secretary Treasurer, William C Moore, General Counsel, Hollis B Vail, Audio Chairman. Harry T. Pratchett, Director of Development, Frank Snowden Hopkins, Director of Chapter Services; Gregg Edwards, Director of Profes sional Activities, Howard F Didsbury, Jr. Director of Special Studies

Staff Membership Department-Joan McAleer (Chief),
Susan Echard, Joan R. Albrecht Book Service-Julia
Larsen (Director), Virginia Kerney. Administration-
Sarah Oglesby

269 In Search of Tomorrow's Crises

United Nations Representative. Robert Delaney. 322
East 74th Street, Apt. 4B, New York, New York 10021
USA Co-Representative Ralph Hamil

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279 After Affluence, What?

by Harlan Cleveland

The developed countries have growing numbers of rich people. They, too. have their problems-concerns that may prove increasingly important to society at large.

Copyright 1977 World Future Society
All rights reserved.

Feature Articles

Second class postage paid at Washington, DC. and at
offices. Headquarters: 4916 9 Elmo

additional ma Washington, DC. 20014 USA Tele
phone (301) 656-8274

by Peter Schwartz, Peter J. Teige, and Willis W Harman

What are the emerging problems that could develop into major crises? A group has developed techniques for identifying such potential crises and identifies 41 specific "crises of tomorrow."

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Volume XI, No. 5
October 1977


A motion picture producer tells about the innovations he used to describe on film the study of the future.

295 The Circus and Future Shock

by William R. George and Stan Mulford

Circus people are constantly exposed to transience, novelty, and diversity -the things that are supposed to give you "future shock." To keep their sanity, they have adopted techniques that could be used by others.

303 The Coming Energy Transition

by Denis Hayes

Civilization can cope with a "post-petroleum" world-if strong action is taken to conserve energy and to develop solar and other power sources based on natural energy flows.

World Trends and Forecasts

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323 Technology 325 Transportation 328 Values

Front Cover. A view of the "Garden Earth" set built for the motion picture Toward the Future. This issue of THE FUTURIST includes an article about the production of this futuristic film.

Photo: Stowmar Enterprises, Inc.

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Thank you for the opportunity to present testimony from the B'nai B'rith Energy Committee of Maryland for the January 1978 Committee on Science and Technology Hearing on Future Space Programs. Enclosed is the testimony and the abstract for publication in the records of the hearing.

Respectfully yours,

Bruce Friedman

Bruce Friedman, Chairman
B'nai B'rith Energy Committee
of the State of Maryland



Born June 21, 1939, Brooklyn, New York.

Graduated Brooklyn,

College, Brooklyn, New York, June 1960, B. S., Physics. Graduated
Syracuse University, Syracuse, New York, Ph. D., January, 1969,
Physics. From July 1967 to January 1970, worked in Naval Applied
Science Laboratory, Brooklyn, New York. Most of the time between
that job and my reporting to my present job at the David W. Taylor
Naval Ship Research and Development Center, Annapolis, Maryland in
September, 1974, I worked at the American Institute of Physics,
New York, New York. Here in the Annapolis R and D center, most of my
time has been spent in the Pollution Abatement Division.

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