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tical problems to be expected on the basis of historical analogy. I plan to convince you that we are in no position now to handle the difficulties which would emerge. I intend to demonstrate that in view of the many unsolvable problems, the above listed five benefits expected from space colonization are largely illusory Furthermore. I will argue that not only is the proposed space colonization program unlikely to alleviate our difficulties, but it will inevitably amplify them and move us closer to general disaster.

Let us start our argument by examining one by one the previously listed five expected benefits.

An Invitation to Tyranny

1. Diversity. How realistic is the hope that space colonization would indeed encourage small-scale government units, a high degree of independence, and free diverse social experimentation?

If left to themselves, what kind of social structure would the spaceships likely develop? The most reasonable assumption is that they will develop along the same lines as small self-contained social units in the past have tended to do. Probably the simplest example of such units is a ship on the high seas. What societies evolved on sea-faring vessels of the past? All of us have heard about pirate ships roaming the high seas, each under the control of its tyrannical captain. But how many ships were inhabited by a democratic community of gentle people who minded their own business, did harm to no one. and made their living happily fishing on the high seas under the bright clear tropical sun? None that I know of. More generally, how many peaceful. democratic, pluralistic communities have evolved since sophisticated weaponry became possible with the discovery of ways to forge copper? The history of Europe shows that whenever central authority has weakened, countries have tended to disintegrate and smaller, geographically determined units have emerged, each ruled by a strong man reigning over the local population-but also defending it against exploitation by outsiders With the notable exception of certain Swiss cantons and some cities, essentially all regional governments were autocratic until quite recently. This phenomenon is not limited to Europe; the experience of Asia, North Africa and Central America is similar. Nor is this tendency limited to the past Hierarchies and rul

About the Author

Author Paul L. Csonka, a physicist, is director of the Institute of Theoretical Science, University of Oregon, Eugene, Oregon 97403.

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These everyday observations are of limited scope, but, in conjunction with our brief historical analysis, they show a general pattern and cause one to wonder if such behavior might be genetically preferred. The formation of hierarchies definitely has survival value for group animals living in the wild because it insures group formation around the strongest leaders. It seems unlikely that behavior that is common to almost all higher animal societies would be totally absent in human society. Whether the reason is genetic or otherwise, the fact remains that, in the cultures prevailing from ancient times until today, there is a strong tendency toward authoritarian hierarchies.

Nowadays the tendency to form hierarchies seems to have lost much of its primeval value: it is unpleasant for those who are relegated to the lower echelons and it also appears to be harmful to the leaders who occupy the higher levels Perceiving this change, people in many societies have strived to make the transition to democracy, but only a small minority of countries have succeeded in achieving an acceptable approximation of it. Despite the many setbacks, there are still those who hope that democracy will prove to be viable in the long run and perhaps some day even come to be accepted by many more countries. But even where democratic societies exist, they seem to be in constant danger of sliding toward a more autocratic system. The reverse

movement happens only as a result of the spectacular social changes usually referred to as revolutions, and more often than not, even these changes merely generate another autocratic system replacing the old one.

In view of the foregoing, we must assume that most isolated space communities will, almost certainly, eventually develop some non-democratic form of

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A Dialogue on Space Colonization

In recent issues, THE FUTURIST has published several articles which look favorably upon the idea of large-scale space colonization in the near future. Space Colonies: The High Frontier" by Gerard K O'Neill appeared in the February 1976 issue and "Designing a Space Community by Magoroh Maruyama appeared in October 1976.

This article draws attention to some possible drawbacks of largescale space colonization now. Csonka, a physicist, anticipates that some may tend to dismiss his arguments as unscientific. because he is "neither a historian nor a political scientist. However, he contends that

us.

his presentation is justified because "the choices which will have to be made will affect the future of all of In addition, at present, there is no generally accepted practicable scientific method in the social sciences which could prove wrong his opinions he says. In such cases pertise must be supplemented by other considerations, he concludes. "There is clearly room for opinion.

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Csonka believes that the subject of space colonization is such an important one that a dialogue must be started in which all of the possible ramifications for society are brought out into the open before a commitment is made

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government subject to a relatively small ruling group indulging (consciously or subconsciously) their primeval urge to dominate others. Space colonies would offer excellent opportunities for this to happen because of the discipline needed to operate life-support systems and be cause of the high degree of control that can be maintained over communications and travel. A space colony so operated would resemble an island of prisoners and would not likely become a source of great joy for most of its inmates At any rate I see no chance for a true diversity of social systems unless local developments are restrained by effective outside control. This, however, implies government on the scale of the solar system and few people would be willing to call that a "small-scale gov ernment unit Thus, in my view, the expectation of small government together with local diversity is unrealistic.

A large-scale. tolerant. concerned government is a necessity if the emergence of autocratic systems is to be avoided. Indeed, in the absence of big government the many local societies would develop essentially independently from each other. On purely statistical grounds, the emergence of many autocratic systems is to be expected. Colonies Would Fight Each Other

2. Plentiful Lands. Let us turn from the internal social organization of the space colonies to the relationships among them. Still assuming that space colonies are sovereign to the extent that nations are today (ie. that no large overall government controls them), let us ask the question: Is their relationship likely to be always harmonious?

O'Neill argues that these relationships would be peaceful because the habitable space territories, being extendable, would be practically limitless," and also because the use of atomic weapons in space is forbidden by an international treaty

1. however, believe that violent conflicts would soon become likely. Let me enumerate a few of the many reasons for my belief.

Construction of a new space colony would require several years, much work and a great many resources. Occupation of a colony by force would be faster and cheaper, constituting an ecoThis nomic incentive for aggression. reasoning is born out by past experi

ence

when the colonists reached the New World, they did not just occupy themselves with peaceful labor or the contemplation of nature. They fought numerous battles. And not only with the Indians who understandably objected to their intrusion. but also with each other-the Spanish with the Portuguese, the French with the English etc.

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Many of them also fought within their
own communities to such an extent that
carrying arms became indispensible.
Why did they behave in this manner?
Because it was faster and cheaper to
take the livestock and occupy the land
and houses of others than to raise new
animals, clear new land or build new
houses. Yet they too had unlimited"
habitable areas at their disposal.

"We must assume that

borders: the motive cannot be economic. since the entire economy is state-controlled. The religious wars in Ireland and Lebanon and the intercultural strife in Cyprus also have long outgrown their economic origins.

Let us also remember the simple joy felt by many which comes from conquering others. It would be one of the rewards of aggression. And let us not forget those select few who would consider it their duty to lead the misguided masses of the solar system to greater

most isolated space happiness-against their own will, if communities will, almost

certainly, eventually
develop some

non-democratic form of
government."

Furthermore, competition for the
most desirable raw materials (best lo-
cation, highest quality, etc.) would re-
sult in raids on each other's installa-
tions and in counterraids, retaliations
and general violence. Examples of such
labor
conflicts-between individuals
unions, and industrial companies as
well as nations-are so numerous and
well known as to render further expo-
sition unnecessary

Continuing development would be
inconceivable without some regula-
tions governing such matters as radio-
active and other waste disposal, traffic
control, and perhaps even population
growth. On the average. there is al-
ways a short-term economic advantage.
in violating such regulations; otherwise
there would be no need to invent the
regulations in the first place. Hence,
the temptation to violate them and try
to get away with it. Hence also the need
to enforce the regulations through a
penal system-yet another source of
violence. An illustration of this phe-
nomenon: It is generally agreed that our
traffic laws are needed for the common
good and are reasonable, yet all of us
feel tempted occasionally to circumvent
them

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need be. Among the many tyrants
(whose number, like the total popula-
tion, can be assumed to double about
every 35 years) there will likely be some
who will run their space islands on the
basis of black magic, voodoo, or vari-
ous superstitions of their own inven-
tion. There will also be those to whom
the Lord will reveal that He finds certain
types of space colonies offensive and
wishes them destroyed. A crazed ruler,
acting on "God's orders, may set out to
cleanse the solar system of this entire
humanity of sinners and repopulate it
with the surviving creatures of his own.
spaceship, a la Noah, but on a grander

scale

Need I go on? There is really no reason to anticipate harmony instead of conflict. On the contrary, the sources of potential conflict will remain plentiful, whether or not habitable areas can be expanded by spaceship construction. Conflict could not be prevented by material abundance, but only by a universally-felt deep respect and concern for all human beings. Such a feeling is insufficiently encouraged today. For its acceptance, a long-range cultural reorientation would have to occur, and that may take generations.

Conflicts would not be restricted to conventional warfare. True, we do have a treaty forbidding the use of weapons of mass destruction" in outer space. However, the treaty does not define "weapons of mass destruction," and although it does require inspection of all installations on celestial bodies, it says nothing about stations or space colonies in orbit. In any case, the moral force of this treaty, all by itself. is hardly likely to deter the greedy ones the bullies, the maniacs the suicidal types. or the various champions of human gress. liberation," or rejuvenation.

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Every colony, as well as the Earth itself, would be in danger from outer space at all times. No matter how many problems we may have today, we can still look at the stars with fair assurance immediate that they constitute no threat to us. But with millions of space colonies roaming the solar system. life could degenerate into a series of preparations for and recoveries from attacks an updated version of the life

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on Earth. In practice this would probably mean keeping them in permanent economic dependency to prevent a successful coup d'etat leading to full independence.

3. Population. Turning to the third item on the list of expected benefits from space colonies, we must recognize that space colonization cannot solve the population problem, because that would require a full-scale effort starting immediately, to keep up with the pace of population growth. But such an effort is out of the question, as just demonstrated.

4. Sanctuary for Endangered Species. This suggested benefit is more realistic. Although it will not be possible to shift most industrial activity from the Earth's biosphere to the few space colonies envisioned, nevertheless, even a small number of colonies could serve as havens for the bird and animal species endangered on Earth. Of course, if life on Earth ceased for some reason, it would also cease in the colonies which, as we have seen, would have to be kept dependent on the Earth for survival. Since it would be much cheaper to provide havens for those same species here

Cut-away view of interior of a proposed 10,000-person space "habitat." Such space communities are technologically possible, agrees author Csonka, but should not be allowed to proliferate until man has learned to settle conflicts nonviolently and justly. Photo: NASA

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on Earth, this opportunity does not constitute a real incentive to start even a limited colonization program

5 Unique Advantages of Space Environment. Only this final item on the list of benefits constitutes a real incentive. One could derive genuine benefits from research laboratories and certain types of industries located in space colonies, where low temperature, high vacuum. and zero gravity environment would be easily accessible, and sunlight would be plentiful and could be converted into microwave energy to be radiated to Earth Furthermore, the artificial habitats would have novelty value for visiting tourists

Outlook for Space Colonies

There is no need to rush into a largescale colonization program: Its foreseeable benefits would be genuine but limited, nowhere utopian in dimension, and would certainly not solve our most pressing problems, such as overpopula tion

Before large-scale space colonization is undertaken in the far distant future. we need to solve three problems: (1) how to settle conflicts (e.g. concerning the distribution of resources) nonviolently and justly. (2) how to safeguard the right of self-determination of various groups (on Earth and in space colonies) without opening the door to perpetual turmoil, and (3) how to limit population growth and waste production to avoid finding ourselves in desperate situations leading to desperate

actions

All three problems are more likely to be solved here and now rather than after large-scale colonization has started. Reaching a consensus is much easier if the number of participants (i.e. independent states or space communities) is small. Increasing the number of participants by even a few greatly increases the number of potential conflicts Furthermore experience has shown that assemblies of more than a few hundred participants cannot be grasped by an average human being and are therefore quite ineffective.

If and when these problems have been solved we may safely commence fullscale space colonization. We would then be expanding an orderly concerned. nonviolent society into the vast spaces of our solar system. By contrast premature large-scale space colonization would amount to exportation on a cosmic scale of oppression, suffering, and disorder-the very qualities which characterize most human existence today.

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Less crucial than such a moratorium, but nevertheless important, would be insuring that all space installations are built under international-or at least multinational-auspices, to prevent them from simply becoming space extensions of the industrially developed nations on Earth. This would decrease the probability of conflict, and may provide experience in how to embark on large projects cooperatively, rather than competitively.

There is no hope to realize either of the above two suggestions until the general public as well as governments understand the destructive potential of a

full-scale space colonization program. Unfortunately, it may be too late when

that finally happens. The appealing aspects of space colonization are immediately obvious: A growing number of diverse space habitats, flourishing and multiplying in harmony, aiding each other economically and culturally is a

very appealing goal. Viewed superficially. space colonization appears to be a noble venture on the road to an expand

ing. happy human race; by contrast, recognizing the potential for danger requires more careful thinking.

One lesson to be learned from the mistakes of recent decades is that the technical feasibility of something (whether it be babies or nuclear reactors) does not, in itself, prove its desirability. After technical feasibility has been demonstrated, the potential benefits and drawbacks should be carefully evaluated. No agency, no pressure group should be allowed to proceed selfishly, overriding the common good. Foresight and timely dialogue are essential, especially when the project in question is of the size here contemplated.

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