SPACE COLONIZATION-YES, BUT NOT NOW. Paul L. Csonka Institute of Theoretical Science ABSTRACT If space colonization were to be undertaken today at the maximum rate permitted by technology, it is likely that instead of increasing the chances of human survival, it would drastically reduce it. Preliminary studies ought to be undertaken, but large scale colonization should be postponed until such a time when (and if) social and political conditions reach the prerequisite state of sophistication. A moratorium on large scale space colonization should be negotiated. You may have heard about recent suggestions to start colonizing outer space as soon as possible. If so, you are probably aware of the benefits that various people hope to derive from a space colonization program. It is less likely that you are conscious of the dangers which such a program would imply. This article calls attention to those dangers. INTRODUCTION 1 The dream of leaving the Earth and reaching the stars is probably as old as the human race. It certainly predates the invention of writing, as attested by ancient legends and mythologies. The dream assumed more realistic dimensions during the days of Galileo. The first scientific calculation along these lines was performed by Newton himself, shortly after the discovery of his law of gravitation. Such thoughts were reflected in fiction writing long before Jules Verne's famous novel, and have become the central theme of innumerable other writings since then. Through the millennia the concept of extra terrestrial life and travel proved to be a rich source of entertainment and inspiration. quite harmless. It was also That state of affairs has changed in recent years. Largely as a result of the interesting analysis of Gerald K. O'Neill and his co[1-8] workers in the United States, and other scientists abroad, it has become clear that we could now start large scale colonization of space if we wished to do so. The dream of permanently leaving the Earth could become a reality. And therein lies the danger. A danger serious enough to merit careful consideration. Before continuing, I wish to make it clear what the purpose of my writing is, by pointing out what it is not. To begin with, it should be emphasized that I am not against space colonization. I hope that it would be successfully undertaken some day, and I would very much like to live long enough to see that day. But I an against plunging into such an adventure before conditions are ripe for it, and I believe that at the present time they are not. 2 It is not our technological maturity which I doubt. In fact, I have high regard for the work of G. K. O'Neill and his collaborators, who have shown that our industrial capacity could cope with the task of colonization.... Whenever I had the opportunity to check their calculations, I found that the statement of their results was realistic, although occasionally on the optimistic side. My objections are of a social and political nature. I claim, and plan to show in this paper, that under the conditions prevailing today, immediate large scale space colonization is likely to have disastrous consequences for the human race. I am neither a historian nor a political scientist, but a physicist. Nevertheless, I feel that it is legitimate for me to address myself to this problem, and to try to predict the likely consequences of the various solutions. Partly because the proven predictive power of the social [9] sciences is, of course very limited, due to the complex nature of the problems. And partly because even if the predictive power of those sciences were higher, the choices which have to be made would affect the future of all of us; therefore, in no event should their discussion be restricted solely to the experts. METHOD OF PRESENTATION In the course of my arguments, I will make sweeping generalizations, and do not feel apologetic about it: in an article of this scope it is impossible to fully document every statement. Many people disagree with my views: All articles which I have seen published so far on this topic, emphasize the beneficial aspects of space colonization. For that reason alone it seems important that an opposite view--mine--be presented. Furthermore, even if in some future debate my opinions are proven wrong (which I do not anticipate), I would be fully justified in having brought up this topic, because the dangers must be thoroughly discussed before space colonization may be undertaken. The burden of proof lies with those who urge us towards a space colonization effort. I request that you give thoughtful consideration to what I have to say. Next I will briefly summarize the results of the group led by G. K. O'Neill, and the reasons brought forward by them in support of a full scale space colonization effort to be started immediately, or very soon. Following this I will list my objections, and then I will argue against a colonization program to be undertaken in the near future. 24-215 O-78-47 |