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It will be seen that the program advocated above is of modest scale yet has potential for both SETI success and scientific contribution. Above all it serves as a logical introduction to the future but does not constitute a blank check commitment to a large expensive effort. The program is not a dead end nor is it open ended. It will be timely to consider whether to proceed with a larger scale program after this earlier effort has shown us more accurately what might be involved.
LARGE SYSTEMS OF GREAT CAPABILITY
Large systems, involving construction of new antennas, are not now needed for SETI. Until we have completed an observational program as suggested in the Second Conclusion, there seems to be no reason to construct any facility much larger in scale than Arecibo. However, we may some day decide to embark on a more comprehensive search. This could require a system of great capability. Although we emphasize that we do not now recommend construction of such a system, we also feel that is is important to emphasize that a large SETI system is well within the capability of present-day technology.
The first feasibility study of large SETI systems was the 1971 Cyclops project. It concluded that we indeed have the technology to construct a very large ground-based phased array. The system considered would be capable of operating over the 1 to 10 GHz region of the microwave window, and could grow to collecting areas of many square kilometers if necessary. Its receiving system would be coupled to a data processing system capable of resolving 200 MHz of spectrum into 0.1 Hz channels and of detecting any coherent signal whose power equalled the noise power in this 0.1 Hz bandwidth.
At the request of the Ames Interstellar Communication Study Group, the Jet Propulsion Laboratory performed a detailed independent review of the Project Cyclops report, and found the study to be correct in its major technological conclusions. Today the data reduction would probably use large scale integrated circuit hardware exclusively, rather than optical processors. Today the system noise temperature could be nearer 10 K than 20 K. But these improvements only reinforce the basic conclusion that ground-based systems can be built that will detect a gigawatt omnidirectional beacon or its equivalent at a distance of 1000 light years. This corresponds, in the water hole, to a flux of one photon per second per square kilometer.
The principal cost of the Cyclops system was found to be the antennas. If the effectiveness of the data processing could be improved enough to double the sensitivity for the same antenna area, the original system performance could be achieved at about half the cost. Clearly in systems having large collecting area it is very important to make optimum use of that area by doing the best possible job of data processing. Further studies of the coherent signal detection problem and the possible tradeoffs in time and money vs antenna area are needed and should be started now.
Ground-Based vs Space Systems
Following the Cyclops study the Interstellar Communication Study Group at Ames contracted with the Stanford Research Institute to study various alternatives to a ground-based array in achieving large collecting area. A dozen alternatives were considered, four ground-based, four lunar-based, and four in space. (See Section III-7.)
The study revealed that very large, very lightweight, single unit antennas in space may be cost competitive with a large ground-based array. This conclusion can only be stated as a possibility and not as a fact because of the obvious difficulty of making valid cost comparisons between the well understood, mature ground-based antenna technology and the poorly understood, untested technology of large, lightweight space antennas.
In addition to the primary feasibility and cost of the space structures many other problems associated with space systems need further study. These include the means to shield the receiver against the severe RFI expected in space, the provision for wide band data links on a continuous basis, and the logistics of servicing and maintaining and operating a complex system in space. However, space systems also give unique advantage with respect to system noise, sky and frequency coverage and tracking ability. All that can be said at present is that space systems must be carefully considered in future plans.
Obviously, the whole question of Earth versus space based systems needs an order of magnitude more study before the issue can be resolved; this must be done before a commitment is made to any large search system. The possibility exists that a combination of ground and space systems would offer advantages not to be found in either alone.
As discussed in the second conclusion, a small dedicated facility for SETI will probably eventually be desirable. This will most likely be a single new ground-based, or small space-based, antenna of advanced design, or both. If the facility is ground-based, it would be prudent if its site and design are chosen to ensure that the system be expandable at least to an intermediate size, such as a small array of 6 to 18 antennas. Such a system would increase the sensitivity well beyond that achievable with any existing antenna and would permit simultaneous searches using different strategies. It would also allow phasing techniques to be tested.
With respect to space borne antennas, it may be desirable, as studies proceed, to fly one or more medium size designs as shuttle payloads. The missions should be designed not only to test the structures but also to allow actual SETI and radio astronomy observations to be made in space. These antennas in conjunction with a dedicated ground facility could be used together as a very long baseline interferometer of greater capability than any now employed in radio astronomy. In addition observations could be made throughout the wide frequency bands over which the atmosphere is noisy or opaque.
As soon as a dedicated SETI facility achieves either a sensitivity or spectral coverage not found in present radio or radar astronomy instruments, it becomes a uniquely useful tool for research in these areas. An almost continuously increasing spectrum of applications exists as the SETI facility is expanded in scope. It is recommended that a fraction of the time of any dedicated facility be devoted to scientific research which that facility alone makes possible. This might well provide a series of discoveries which in themselves help justify the cost of the SETI facility. (See Sections III-5 and III-6).
We see that either in space or on the ground the SETI effort can efficiently grow from the initial effort to one using a very large system at whatever rate is appropriate. Early studies are needed to refine concepts of large systems, and especially to evaluate the usefulness of space. Even in the absence of the discovery of ETI signals, useful discoveries in science will accrue as the facility expands.