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Semiconductor Electronic Materials:

Skylab experiments involving crystal-growing in weightlessness have shown that it is possible to produce crystals with a minimum number of dislocations and other imperfections. This capability, plus the abilities to form very large thin films and produce high-purity materials in wightlessness, leads to the possibility of producing totally new semiconductor electronic materials.

Linear extrapolations of the current semiconductor market growth rate indicates a $12.7-billion market in the year 2000. If orbital experiments provide affirmative information and improved products result as anticipated, an overly-conservative estimate would target space semiconductor material as capturing at least 1% of the total market which would amount to about $500,000 in 1985 growing to $1.27-billion in 2000.

CORE Magnets:

The capability to manufacture dimensionally-solidified materials in orbit holds promise of permitting the space manufacture of cobalt/rare-earth (CORE) magnets. Such magnets would possess very cohesive magnetic field and would permit the construction of electrical equipment of reduced size and weight.

The market for magnets indicates an acceptable price of

$500 per pound for high-quality magnet materials. Even at a price of $750 per pound in the late 1980 time period, the market for space-produced CORE magnets is estimated at $13.7-million per year. By the year 2000, the total market could grow to a low figure of $20-million or a high figure of $100-million.

Fiber Optics Materials:

A strong possibility exists for fabricating very high quality optical glass materials in orbit. There is even a possibility, hinted at by Skylab and Apollo-Soyuz data, that would indicate the potential for totally new and better types of optical materials fabricated in orbit. If so, the use of these materials in fiber optical systems could greatly improve the performance of these systems.

Phenomenal growth rates in excess of 50% per year have been forecast for fiber optical systems. The fiber optics cable market alone is forecast as follows:

1975: less than $1-million

1980: $35-million

1990: $358-million

2000: $2.1-billion

If improved fiber optical materials can be fabricated in orbit, a mere 1% penetration of the 1990 market would be

$3.58-million growing to $21-million by 2000.

The Solar Power Satellite:

The apparent advantage of the solar power satellite is its ability to utilize the full solar flux 24 hours every day. Several technical approaches have been proposed, and several methods of beaming the energy back to the ground are under consideration. On the ground, receiving stations would convert the beamed energy into electricity for feeding existing power grids.

Some small feasibility studies and tests have been performed. Their results appear promising. But additional work must be done before both technical and economic questions can be answered to the satisfaction of potential investors and users. If solar power satellites do prove-out as both technically and economically feasible, the power that could be generated by a single power satellite is dependent upon technical constraints rather than market size. Using several projections of electric power consumption, no saturation of the market could be foreseen before the year 2010. Two sources were used for revenues generated: data from Arthur D. Little, Inc., and studies at Princeton University. The former represents a highly conservative projection. Revenues generated depend upon kilowatt-hour charges, and projections of these charges range from 7 to 27 mils per kilowatt-hour.

The installed power and revenue charts depict these two boundary conditions with the assumption of technical feasibility

MARKET SURVEY – SOLAR POWER SATELLITE

106 MEGAWATTS

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UTILIZE FULL SOLAR FLUX TO GENERATE ELECTRICITY IN ORBIT AND BEAM IT BY MICROWAVE FOR USE ON EARTH

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being demonstrated in the mid-1980 decade using the Space Shuttle as a materials transporter to construct the pilot plants in near-earth orbit for determining technical and cost data.

Industrial Reaction and Feedback:

During the study, contact was made and feedback obtained from a number of individuals in managerial, financial, technical, and research positions in domestic industry completely apart from the aerospace industry. Confidentiality was assured and is being maintained because, in most cases, the individuals pointed out that they were not officially speaking for their firms. One must also keep in mind the old saying, "Does Macy's tell Gimbel's?" Potential competetive advantage can be lost if another firm learns that a company is even considering certain advanced product and service areas.

This industrial feedback was very important to an understanding of the future of space industrialization and to the formulation of the suggestions and recommendations discussed

later.

In the communications industry, the scope and the planned activity in the geosynchronous satellite area was not generally recognized. For example, Intelsat alone is projected to grow by a factor of 17 to 20 times the number of current communications channels by 1993 and by over 100 times by 2000. The possibility

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