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is much easier to apply when the study is otherwise restricted to existing engineering knowledge.

Reliance on the evolutionary improvement of existing hardware has characterized the automobile industry, and is accepted by many as an appropriate way to proceed in the space industry. Nevertheless, most of the missions listed in this paper would be precluded by such an approach. The projections of costs and returns based on the use of existing hardwa e, even with extensive upratings, have lead many to reject a continuation of the manned exploration of space after the completion of the APOLLO moon-landing program, or at least to advocate postponement until some vague future time when we might have a better technology.

The plan proposed in this paper is based, not on the evolutionary improvement of existing hardware, but on the evolutionary improvement of a concept limited only by existing engineering knowledge. The method is first to assume a future situation, and then repeatedly rerationalize the assumption to eliminate internal inconsistencies, and to improve external relationships. The method is described in the following section of this paper.

1.3 DEFINITION OF A SPACE PLAN

In defining a space plan it will help to first define definition. A definition is a description or an example of an entity or a concept which is internally consistent and externally bounded. A definition must not be confused with usage, although informed usage tends to conform with good definition.

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-Definition of a workable and competitive space plan is achieved by finding the overlap in what we want to do, what we know how to do, and what we can afford to do.

What we want to do.

o Adventure- the pioneering spirit, needed now more than ever. o Philosophy- broadening our horizons- putting meaning into our lives.

o Technology— especially the unexpected discoveries.

o Manage sent simulating the management of the man-earth
system, which is a large, closed-cycle space ship, in an
orbit round the sun.

What we know how to do.

o Confine the program to existing engineering knowledge,
requiring no research or development beyond that alrer dy
completed during previous projects.

o Juxtapose the insensitive regions of all important variables.

What we ce. afford to do.

o We can afford to do what costs less to do than not to do.

A completely unbiased list of wants might include visits to Alpha Centauri, or tu pering with the ageing process by accelerating people to the speed of light, but past studies have taught us not to waste auch time and efort wanting these things. Selecting from among real choices, we have four categories of wants, described below.

The central problem of our overcrowded cities, with their artificial environments, is boredom, from lack of opportunity for adventure. It is well know that the cuicide rate falls dramatically during wars. liot altogether facetiously, it has been said that the primary function of army training camps, beyond furnishing men as subjects for officer training, is to confine men in such monotonous environments that they vill ergerly accept unpleasant and hazardous assignments to escape the boredon. Spanish bull fights, continued as a tradition since the time of ancient Babylon and the time of pre-Atlantan Crete, Rotan circZER the Crudes of the idle Ages, and the "youth rebellion" of today. hove all been oitiets for the spirit of adventure. It is sometime

argued that the resources expended on space exploration would be better expended on alleviating the conditions in big-city slums. The argument misses the main point. Space exploration does alleviate the central problem of the slums- boredom.

Adventure does more than entertain the masses. It keeps alive the pioneering spirit among the few who contribute significantly to progress. One person thus stimulated may contribute more to human happiness and usefulness than the entire national anti-poverty program as it is now constituted. History has always been made by the few, and if our nation wants a future history it should cultivate the few who will make it.

Philosophy is the attempt to broader our horizons, and to put meaning into our lives. Such has been the goal of the prophets, poets, scholars, and the rest of us. A reasonable estimate is that more than 10% of all human endeavor since the beginnings of magic 100,000 years ago has been devoted to the practice of magic, the support of religious institutions, the prosecution of holy wars, the persecution of heretics, social identification, and other actiors directed toward individual differentiation and identification. The NASA space program has scarcely reached 1% of the gross national product of the United States alone, and that only momentarily. Yet it has contributed in many ways to the formation of a satisfying concept of nature and man's place in nature. Cosmology, comparative planetology, life on other planets, the stretching of our minds— these pursuits distinguish us from other animals, giving us individuality and identification and dignity as human beings.

We want space science and technology because they extend our insights and capabilities. If history is a guide, the predicted extensions will be largely forgotten, and the unpredicted extensions will far exceed our grandest expectations. We want space science for exactly the same reason we went any science or technology. We believe we see employment of our insights, skills, labor, and capital, at high wages and profits, individually and socially.

sun.

10 The earth is a natural, manned space ship in orbit around the Planning, building, and operating artificial, manned, space ships is expected to give us many new insights into the management of the man-earth system. For one thing, we will be forced to develop information management equipment and techniques which are applicable to any complex operation, and, particularly, to the manearth system as a total, closed network of feedback loops. The artificial space ships would simulate the natural space ship, with similarities and differences which can be deliberately varied to gain insights and test hypotheses about the natural operation and artificial management of either system.

What we know how to do is to plan a configuration based on existing engineering knowledge, including, but not limited to existing hardware. Existing engineering knowledge requires no critical research or development (invention) not already completed during past programs. Existing engineering knowledge can be defined as that body of insights and data which is sufficiently well established that a system designed by its use can be assembled from components fabricated under compartmentalized assignments, with the reasonable expectation that the components will fit and, function together. Using existing engineering knowledge, it is possible to juxtapose the insensitive regions of all important variables and unknowns. Conscientiously done, this is far more effective than experimental testing in eliminating "tricky" characteristics of the system, and thereby making the system predictable, and hence reliable. There was a time, of course, when the existing engineering knowledge was not adequate for the juxtaposition of the insensitive regions of all the important variables in a space rocket system, but that time is past.

Whether we can afford the space program described in this paper depends on its size relative to the national economy; on whether its benefits exceed its costs; on whether some alternative expenditure would yield a greater return; and, finally, on whether we want it. As long as the cost is less than half of 1% of the gross national product, or less than the cost of tobacco, or of alcoholic beverages, or less than 20% of the aerospace industry, there is little point