$500 per pound for high-quality magnet materials. Even at a price of $750 per pound in the late 1980 time period, the market for space-produced CORE magnets 18 estimated at $13.7-million per year. By the year 2000, the total market could grow to a low figure of $20-million or a high figure

of $100-million.

Fiber Optics Materials:

A strong possibility exists for fabricating very high quality optical glass materials in orbit. There is even a possibility, hinted at by Skylab and Apollo-Soyuz data, that would indicate the potential for totally new and better types of optical materials fabricated in orbit. If so, the use of these materials in fiber optical systems could greatly improve the performance of the se systems.

Phenomenal growth rates in excess of 50% per year have been forecast for fiber optical systems. The fiber optics

cable market alone is forecast as follows:

1975: less than $l-million

1980: $35-million

1990: $358-million

2000: $2.1-billion

If improved fiber optical materials can be fabricated in orbit, a mere 1% penetration of the 1990 market would be

$3.58-million growing to $21-million by 2000.

The Solar Power Satellite :

The apparent advantage of the solar power satellite is its

ability to utilize the full solar flux 24 hours every day. Several technical approaches have been proposed, and several methods of beaming the energy back to the ground are under

consideration. On the ground, receiving stations would convert

the beamed energy into electricity for feeding existing power

grids.

Some small feasibility studies and tests have been

performed. Their results appear promising. But additional

work must be done before both technical and economic questions

can be answered to the satisfaction of potential investors and users. If solar power satellites do prove-out as both technically and economically feasible, the power that could be generated by a single power satellite is dependent upon technical constraints rather than market size. Using several

projections of electric power consumption, no saturation of the

market could be fore seen before the year 2010. TWO sources were

used for revenues generated: data from Arthur D. Little, Inc.,

and studies at Princeton University. The former represents a

highly conservative projection. Revenues generated depend upon kilowatt-hour charges, and projections of these charges range from 7 to 27 mils per kilowatt-hour.

The installed power and revenue charts depict these two boundary conditions with the assumption of technical feasibility

being demonstrated in the mid-1980 decade using the Space

Shuttle as a materials transporter to construct the pilot

plants in near-earth orbit for determining technical and

cost data.

a

Industrial Reaction and Feedback:

During the study, contact was made and feedback obtained from a number of individuals in managerial, financial, technical, and research positions in domestic industry completely apart from the aerospace industry. Confidentiality was assured and 1s being maintained because, in most cases, the individuals pointed out that they were not officially speaking for their firms. One must also keep in mind the old saying, "Does Macy's tell Gimbel's?" Potential competetive advantage can be lost

ir another firm learns that a company is even considering

certain advanced product and service areas.

This industrial feedback was very important to an understanding of the future of space industrialization and to the formulation of the suggestions and recommendations discussed

later.

In the communications industry, the scope and the planned activity in the geosynchronous satellite area was not generally

recognized. For example, Intelsat alone is projected to grow

by a factor of 17 to 20 times the number of current communications

channels by 1993 and by over 100 times by 2000. The possibility

of beam interference becomes a real and significant factor by 1981. Crowding of both the frequency spectrum and the preferred geosynchronous orbit positions may lead to communications "rationing" in the 1980 decade unless large,

integrated communications platforms are developed. It was generally felt that certain communications satellite technologies were lagging in the United States due to a

lack of stimulation. Many firms in the United States must

purchase parts and equipment overseas because of both advanced

technology and lower costs. Some firms cannot compete with overseas competition. If the United States is to regain its

initial leadership in the space communications area of space

industrialization, it was felt that some organized coordination

and stimulation is required.

In the manufacturing area, the industrial feedback was even more interesting. Nearly every contact stressed the fact

that the work to date is too shallow to provide a data base

for industrial decisions. Specific comments were :

1. The products are poorly defined at this time.

2. The markets are too indefinite yet.

3. Some terrestrial alternatives appear cheaper.

4. The experimental data is too soft for industrial use.

5. Many things taken for granted by space advocates

are really theoretical and their basis is yet

unsubstantiated.