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One of the more important keys to the prolonged presence of mankind

in space is related to health considerations.

If the net effect upon

health of living in space is clearly expected to be positive, however

small it may be, then there might be no visible upper limit to the number

of eventual space residents.

But if the net effect upon health is even

slightly negative, then the number of people residing in space is apt to

remain close to the minimum number required for the commercial and explor

atory functions.

Health aspects of space will have physical, mental,

and

emotional components all of which are likely to come under increasing

scrutiny for the next several decades, at least.

The outcome of these

investigations will lead to future determinations or assessments of

whether the net effects are, might be, or could become positive.

Our study convinced us that the prospects for rapid commercial

industrial developments in space will be determined more by domestic

politics, social ideologies, and international cooperation than those of

technical or economic feasibility.

These last appear almost certain to

promote prolonged growth in space ventures.

However, new space vehicles,

space science, space exploration, space law, multi-national space ventures,

and procedures for the removal of space debris all will require a reason

able degree of national commitment and international cooperation among

nations with space programs.

Also, the long-term effects of military

activities which facilitate space technology on one hand, could threaten

the viability of some peaceful space developments on the other. The

resolution of these issues over time, or the lack thereof, will have

strong influences on the unfolding future in space.

Finally, the rapid colonization of the space frontier, once this

possibility becomes technologically and economically feasible, might be

limited by the ability of space residents to develop acceptable social

dynamics, as well as sustainable political forms and institutions, within

and among the colonies. Although in the early years of their formation

such colonies will undoubtedly be under direct control of institutions

on earth, such connections appear likely to diminish in importance over

time, leading eventually to "independent" colonies.

The potential for

favorable socio-political developments under such circumstances and their

long-term viability is inherently uncertain.

Possibly, they can only be

"studied" by a scenario approach at this time.

That is, a space-scenario

writer can be about as optimistic or pessimistic as he chooses.

Our study, after examining the more important factors of Table 1,

and after setting forth some of the relevant elements of the earth

centered context out of which space futures must spring, develops three

more or less detailed 200-year scenarios expressing relatively optimistic,

moderate, and pessimistic developments.

somewhat unexpected outcome

was that the optimistic scenario "demanded" that nearly everyone on earth

and in space should soon become healthy, wealthy, and wise--partly because

of the assumption of a steady but not unduly spectacular growth over time.

However, even in the pessimistic scenario, the annual worldwide effort in

space after 200 years was hard to restrain to as "little" as $1 trillion

(1976 dollars). This is roughly 100 times greater than the world's

current total space budget and would, at the very least, be 1000 times

greater in effectiveness because of projected lowered transport costs

and other improvements in technology.

Thus, the future of space development from a long term perspective

appears to lie somewhere between spectacular and miraculous.

The pace

over the near term will be determined by our current attitudes as expressed

through the allocated funds.

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Thank you for inviting General Dynamics to present a statement about
national space programs. Since the Corporate Space activities are
centralized in the Convair Division, Mr. Lewis has asked me to reply.
The next few years will provide unprecedented opportunities for the
United States to use space to satisfy broad military and civilian needs.
The Space Shuttle Orbiter opens an era of new opportunities for space
utilization. Our studies consistently show that, with the advent of a
reusable space transportation system such as the Shuttle provides, we will
have extensive needs for significant quantities of electrical power in
space. The Orbiter has limited power and time in orbit. Both of these must
be extended for greater utilization of space potential. The specific
system is not yet definitized but would probably be an auxiliary orbital
system serviced by Shuttle and providing the electrical power and other
services needed for economic advancement of Shuttle capabilities.

This opportunity has also been recognized by others, as evidenced by German planning documents which were sent to us as part of our studies previously mentioned.

I believe it is important that modest funding be provided during the immediate future so as to be prepared for full development and deployment of such a power module when the space shuttle becomes operational.

27 January 1978 Page Two

The Honorable Olin E. Teague

Time is needed for the technical community to complete these conceptual definitization studies. This time is available if modestly funded efforts are initiated now and sustained over the next four to five years. This is compatible with the heavy effort required for initial deployment of the basic Space Transportation System in the near future.

The resulting system would then be developed and deployed in an evolutionary and prudent manner, compatible with other national needs and priorities.

Sincerely,

DABuchanan

Dr. L. F. Buchanan
General Manager
General Dynamics Convair Division

Enclosure

GENERAL DYNAMICS
Convair Division

Enclosure

PLANNING FOR FUTURE SPACE PROGRAMS

General Dynamics has participated in the nation's space program since its beginnings. We are deeply interested in the plans for the future and trust that the following will help to affirm and accomplish these plans.

The next few years will provide unprecedented opportunities for the United States to use space to satisfy broad civilian and military needs. The pioneering phase of space utilization is over; the usefulness of space has been demonstrated in terms of very tangible benefits. Our activities in space have resulted in significant advancements in communications, weather forecasting, medical science, crop prediction, and mineral survey, to name but a few in the civil sector. The enormous contribution to defense needs no amplification.

The proper direction for future activities seems clear: NASA's earlier development of communications satellites has set the pattern for evolving space applications to the point where commercial investment can follow. With the advent of the Space Shuttle, we have a similar opportunity to develop a capability in space to serve an even broader spectrum of our society. With a very modest initial investment, a service center can be developed that will significantly expand the utility and economy of the Space Shuttle.

The principal guiding criteria for future space programs must center around their benefits, an economic justification, and public acceptance. Improved communications at low cost, information for better planning and forecasting of earth-based operations, disaster warnings to avert human misery, new products for use on earth, and security from man's own misadventures are clearly benefits. But there are also benefits in scientific investigations that advance the frontiers of knowledge. They too have a place in the space programs of the future. For example, we need to know more about the sun and how it affects the earth's environment. The ability to forecast cyclical climatological behavior is of enormous social and economic significance. Lunar and planetary explorations provide basic scientific data fundamental to the advancement of knowledge and help satisfy our cultural imperative to explore and understand the unknown.

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