Thus even the best of forecasters was bound to fall short of reality in

a long-term prediction. Today the same situation undoubtedly prevails.

Recently the Hudson Institute performed for NASA a study entitled

Long Term Prospects for Developments in Space.* This study attempts to

take a 200-year forward view, seeking to provide perspective, not accuracy,

which would be hopeless.

The general perspective furnished by this study

is that the enormous potential for the future of space almost certainly

will be realized; only the timing is at question.

Even here the time

difference between optimistic and pessimistic projections appears likely

to be but a factor of 2--that is, 100 years is almost certainly enough to

accomplish "miracles" which might well be done in 50, or 200 years those

which might occur in 100.

In the phrase "almost certainly' the "almost"

refers to an inherent human capability to make space (or any other) devel

opment impracticable either by deliberate destructive threats or actions

or by wanton neglect of the required "housekeeping" which, before many

years have passed, could even make space operations impractical. However,

barring such barbarian behavior, the nature of space development and the

rate at which it might proceed will be determined by a number of factors,

the more important of which we have found, can be grouped into the five

categories shown in Table 1.

The first factor, the successful technological development of the

various facilities needed in space, seems to me to be relatively assured.

Although the exact rate of such deve lopments is uncertain, there is little

question that they will be rapid during the balance of this century, and

probably indefinitely when not restricted by fundamental physical laws.

Table 1

KEYS TO LONG-TERM DEVELOPMENTS IN SPACE

1.

SUCCESSFUL TECHNOLOGY

DECLINING TRANSPORTATION COSTS TO NEAR-EARTH ORBIT
EFFICIENT SPACE TUG ENGINES
ORBITING SPACE BASES AND PROFITABLE INDUSTRIES
RELIABLE "INTELLIGENT" ROBOTS
LUNAR COLONIES
PLANETARY SPACE STATIONS AND COLONIES

2. TOUR I SM

"INEXPENSIVE" SAFE TRANSPORT
SPACE HOTELS, HOSPITALS, CONVENTION CENTERS
EXCITING JOURNEYS

However, for the foreseeable future, space-based population will essen

tially be determined by the relative utility of humans to specialized

machines; or at least for as long as the costs for transporting and main

taining astronauts in space are relatively large. Thus, while there will

undoubtedly be many specialists required for space exploration, and for

the construction, operation and maintenance of orbiting industrial facili

ties, we cannot now even roughly determine the optimum number of such

personnel several decades or more hence.

Transportation costs will be a key factor in determining the growth

rate of space industrialization, colonization, and tourism.

For what it

is worth, our long term projections for the costs to place payloads into

orbit are given in Figure 1.

Even the pessimistic projection reduces such

costs about 100-fold over the next 200 years.

Space tourism as a spectacular growth industry appears to be a nearly

inevitable consequence of space development and an important contributing

factor to it.

Of course, tours in space must await a general confidence

in the safety of the journey and the reduction of costs to acceptable

levels--both of which appear to be "in the cards."

Our studies suggest

that such an industry could begin at about the turn of the century.

Initially at a cost of about $100,000 per person (1976 dollars) for a few

days in space, such travel would be restricted to the wealthy.

Over time

it may become feasible for almost anyone--much as travel is today.

Our

projections of the growth potential for space tourism are shown in Figure

2 for three scenarios.

The different outcomes in these scenarios are vast.

A hundred years from now the pessimistic scenario visualizes about a thou

sand tourists per year; the optimistic one, about a hundred million.