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long-range planning, their impacts can be more easily absorbed and plans changed accordingly.
Market penetrations by 1990 were deliberately targeted at highly conservative percentages.
Synergism the cumulative effect of progress in one technical or market area affecting other areas -- was not considered since it was not possible to speculate with any firm basis in the absence of some hard data on characteristics.
The objective, therefore, was to present a conservative forecast based upon accepted techniques and the best information and expert opinion available in 1977-1978.
In the three areas of communications, manufacturing, and
energy, 227 potential space products or services were investigated. Terrestrial alternatives or technology requirements eliminated all but 27 of these. These screened potential opportunities were then subjected to market forecasts,
economic analysis, and maximum-minimum banding studies. This
resulted in 8 "clear winners" and 19 items that should be kept
under continual study as additional hard data from orbital experiments becomes available.
No "show stoppers" were found.
This information in terms of annual gross sales of products and services in the three areas of communications, materials, and energy · assuming that all 27 opportunities are taken are shown in the accompanying charts. The total
on each curve represents a summation based on a common Year Zero that could occur between 1985 and 1990. This was done in order to indicate relative magnitudes of gross revenues
in the three areas.
The year of initial market penetration, rate of growth, and final market saturation level are all dependent upon the future scenario that actually occurs - 1.e. : technical feasibility shown or disproved, economic feasibility shown or disproved, development of unknown terrestrial alternatives, political and/or legal delays, etc. Therefore, direct summation of the three total curves is not appropriate, and the curves are presented only to indicate relative gross revenues, growth rates, saturation points, and start points that can reasonably be expected to occur.
Best case is shown by the solid line, and worst case by the dashed 11ne. Dollar amounts throughout are in constant 1976 dollars with no discounting.
A brief look at some of the interesting products and services studied will be helpful in understanding the conclusions and recommendations that follow,
Large Scale Data Transfer:
By placing very large multi-beam antennas and transponders in geosynchronous orbit, very small and low-powered ground
equipment can be used to work with the satellite. This is just