(c) Number of personal cars in 1976 and 2000 by income classes. These projections were obtained by applying the adults-per-car ratios (2(b) above) to the numbers of adults (1(b) above).

(d) Adjusted total of the number of cars owned by individuals. A complete review of the reasons for this adjustment involves characteristics of the statististical sources utilized in the above outlined steps as well as the data noted below on the total passenger car stock and the number of business and government autos. This would take us too far afield for the present purpose. It should be indicated at the outset that the adjustment—an increase of 5 percent in the number of personal autos derived in the manner described above-has a minor effect on the projections. The principal pragmatic reason for carrying out the adjustment is that if it were not done, the table would show a total for cars owned by business and government that would be manifestly much too high. This follows because the number of such autos are estimated as a residual-total auto registrations minus personal autos. There is the general point that a small residual derived by subtracting a large estimated component from an estimated total, is subject to very substantial errors. Relatively small errors in the controlling total and/or in the large component can yield errors in the small residual on the order of 50 or 100 percent, for example.

With respect to the estimate of personal autos derived from the sample survey conducted by the University of Michigan's Survey Research Center, the following can be said briefly here: these annual surveys do not cover members of the armed forces living on bases, people living in rooming houses, and hotels, as well as population of institutions. In large degree these are low income groups. The autos owned by such groups were therefore not covered. Then, there is a fuzzy area where it is sometimes difficult to distinguish between an auto owned by a private individual and by a business. Technical matters, such as the timing of the survey in relation

ship to other data utilized and the treatment of families started during the year also are troublesome to clarify statistically.

Some increase in the number of personal autos derived by the method outlined seems indicated. The upward adjustment of 5 percent, however, is not intended as anything like a precise measure. As described at the outset, it is largely introduced to avoid showing in the tables a figure for business and government autos that is patently too high. The data on auto registrations are compiled from State-byState totals by the Bureau of Public Roads, Department of Commerce. These are known to be subject to some overstatement because of the difficulties in eliminating both duplicate registrations of the same car in different States and vehicles not in use or scrapped during the year. An overstatement of two percent in the total stock can have a disproportionate effect on the residual estimate of business and government autos. Registrations are technically reported as of the close of the calendar year. Using these figures to represent the number of vehicles a few months later serves to compensate in a small way for the overstatement.

3. Number of Cars Owned by Business and Government Agencies. As described above, the total as of the close of 1958 was obtained by deducting the number of autos owned by individuals from total registrations. This residual was projected directly on the basis of the growth in the labor force as estimated in the study prepared for ORRRC by the National Planning Association. Unfortunately, data are not available on the number of these cars. It should be appreciated that the uncertainty as to these vehicles can have but a minor effect on the estimate of the total stock. Thus, if there is an overstatement by 1 million, the stock of cars estimated for 1976 would be affected only by 200,000 cars. This discrepancy is yielded by the differences in the rates of increase for personal and business autos.

CHAPTER FIVE

INTERCITY BUS AND RAIL TRAVEL

The Roles of Surface Common Carriers

The past growth of auto and air travel has limited the importance of rail and bus travel generally. This has been particularly true of recreation travel. The future of the rail and bus industries also depends, in large part, on the development of the other systems.

The development of an economical air travel system could especially limit the scope of surface carriers. Rates could be directly competitive with low bus fares, for example, and the virtual elimination of expenses while en route for food and lodging in air travel would be a clear saving. Under these circumstances, the flexible bus system would largely serve to supplement air travel by providing direct connections between airports and passenger origins or destinations. In the case of recreation trips to national parks, this would often mean a bus trip of, say, 100 miles or more. In the decades ahead, some part of this type of service would also be provided by short-haul air transportation on a much larger scale than is the case today. Buses would also serve part of the short-haul intercity market, say trips of less than 250 miles.

The role of rail travel in recreation seems destined to be limited except in parts of the West. The development of improved types of trains, particularly with respect to speed, would help this system. The main role of such trains, however, would seem to lie in providing service between large metropolitan areas. There would, of course, be "spillover" effects in that some people would often use trains for all or part of the journey to outdoor recreation areas or for reaching our principal cities on sightseeing trips. Buses also have an important role in the latter activity.

Traffic volume on both systems has been declining rapidly in total volume and more rapidly on a per capita basis. The combined travel rate on both systems, in terms of passenger-miles per person, has fallen sharply in the postwar years back to somewhat below the prewar level. Relative to prewar per capita rates, rail shows a large decline offset in the combined total by the increase in bus travel. While total passenger-miles of the intercity bus industry has been relatively stable in recent years, the per capita travel rate has been declining.

Despite the considerable rise in incomes and other changes since 1910, the per capita travel rate on both rail and bus combined is well below the rail level of nearly 50 years ago. The number of rail passengers in 1959 was lower than in any year going back to 1890 when comparable records begin.

The familiar causes of traffic losses over recent years have been the rapid rise both in auto ownership and travel, which has affected traffic volume

at all mileage distances and which has, in air travel, diverted much traffic from the medium and longerhaul mileage brackets. With the continual improvement in the speed of transport, particularly by air, people tend to travel longer distances, thus decreasing the relative importance of shorter-haul movements. Other developments, particularly within the railway industry, have been unfavorable. The combined result has been the radical changes in the position of these two industries.

Economic growth, specifically the increase in incomes, in itself does not promise any significant expansion of transport volume on these systems. The travel rates show little variation by income classes, according to the results of recent travel surveys. Bus travel with its lower fares is somewhat more popular toward the bottom of the income scale and railway travel has a higher rate at the upper end. The latter reflects, in part, personal and business pullman travel. However, first-class rail travel is declining so rapidly that its future seems seriously in doubt.

In preparing long-term projections of these travel systems, the rail passenger and bus industries are combined. The logic of doing so stems essentially from the similarity both in the short to medium-haul markets served and in the forces determining the future volume of traffic. These similarities outweigh such differences as exist.

Among the differences in the travel markets are: average fares are about 2.5 cents per mile for buses, about 3.0 cents for rail coach and over 6 cents for first-class rail. Average hauls are about 70 miles for bus (including some commuters) and 125 miles for rail (excluding commuters). Excluding both firstclass and commutation traffic, the average rail journey has been at about 100 miles since 1950. While the routes served are often competitive, many towns have only rail or bus service, not both. Increasingly, areas are being served by bus alone. This is true of both older towns on discontinued rail passenger lines as well as newer towns which grew up in the motor vehicle age without rail connections.

Long-term projections of the separate shares of this travel market that may be held by buses or railways encounter the most serious difficulties, arising largely from the uncertainties surrounding the future of intercity rail travel. In looking ahead as far as 1976 and beyond, and in continuing, for example, the declining trend of recent years, quite basic questions are precipitated regarding the feasibility of continued rail passenger service on many routes. These questions seem likely to require some resolution with respect to first-class travel within the next 5 years 80. A nearly 50 percent decline in the per capita first-class travel rate has, in fact, occurred

or

from 1951 to 1957. Coach travel, excluding commutation, while declining less rapidly, would show a 50 percent decline in per capita rate from the 1951 level by 1965 if the recent rate of decline continues. Apart from the worsening relation of railway costs and revenues, accompanying declining traffic volumes, there is the matter of the ability to maintain satisfactory service particularly with respect to schedule frequency. Such railway projections as can be prepared become contingent upon alternative assumptions regarding specific developments and responses of the industry. Alternative possibilities can be foreshadowed, and these are briefly noted below. However, it cannot be said that the industry's attitudes and plans have sufficiently crystallized to provide a basis for specific projections.

There seems to be no realistic alternative but to consider two different courses of development for these surface carriers. A high travel volume model proceeding on the assumption of developments favorable to these industries and a low surface carrier travel model reflecting the continuance of past unfavorable trends. The technical problem of projection is of limited relevance to the development of outdoor recreation. It is carried out here partly to complete the projection of total domestic travel volume.

Outside forces, primarily the rise of auto and air travel, have been, and can be, expected to exert a continued unfavorable influence on these industries. Within the possibilities fixed by these outside forces, the future of travel volume will largely be determined by changes in the quality of service, speed of travel, and rates. The "high" model attempts to foreshadow the results that may be realistically achieved by a concerted effort to check the decline in traffic coupled with a limited development of the short-haul travel market by air transport and generally the development associated with the "low" air travel model, described above in chapter 3. The "high" surface

carrier model may be loosely associated with the "low" air model.

As shown in the accompanying table, the two projections contemplate quite different roles for surface intercity common carrier transport. In the "high" model, traffic after continuing a decline that seems quite inevitable for some years, rises to 10 percent above the 1960 level by 1976. In the "low" projection for 1976 traffic volume falls about 15 percent from the 1960 level. An extension of these trends to the year 2000, widens the spread between the “high” and "low" models.

The "Low" Model

The period since 1950 seems most relevant to the selection of a trend suitable for extension into the future. The per capita rate of travel on both bus and rail systems rose somewhat in 1951 and 1952, largely as a result of developments connected with the Korean War. This rise and the subsequent rapid fall are, therefore, ignored in fixing the trend. The data for recent years are given in table C-6. A lesser rate of decline than has occurred over the past decade was extrapolated. This is indicated because of the elimination of unprofitable routes that have been going on in recent years and the prospect that the operations of these systems are now largely concentrated on the better routes.

A more rapid decline in the per capita travel rate is, of course, conceivable. This could follow, for example, a virtual collapse of intercity railway service over the next 5 to 10 years or so, coupled with a failure of intercity buses to absorb the bulk of this traffic. While the rapid elimination of rail service has been discussed, it seems to possess a low order of probability at this time, despite the serious situation in which the industry finds itself.

The continued declining trend yields a drop of about one-third in the per capita passenger-mile total by 1976. Because of the expected rise in population, the decline in total passenger-mile volume is less-on the order of 15 percent. If this rate of decline is continued into the future as far as the year 2000, the per capita travel rate decline is over 100 percent. Surface intercity transportation under these circumstances would be limited to relatively few routes.

The "High" Model

As noted, the high model may be the outcome not only of varying development patterns in bus and rail service but also in air transportation. Much depends on timing. For example, if the air transport industry develops the shorter-haul travel market by the midsixties, this would tend to foreclose an effort by the surface systems. On the other hand, should a more speedy and comfortable surface service be introduced, this would limit the market open to air. The fares achieved in longer distance air travel are another variable, but the gradual rise in income levels in the decades ahead generally favors air travel. The relative importance of bus and rail travel can vary.

Rail Travel

Priority needs to be assigned to the introduction of a high-speed service in considering the type of response of the rail industry that could check declining traffic trends. A relatively favorable traffic development pattern in the decades ahead can be envisioned, for example, on the assumption of frequent comfortable service supplied on hauls of, say, 500 miles or less by lightweight trains averaging about 100 miles per hour. Such a service would represent nearly a 50 percent improvement over present speeds. If provided at present fares or fares appreciably below those prevailing for air transport, traffic would be attracted away from autos and air. New travel movements would also be generated. In some situations, depending on the location of airports relative to city centers, the total door-to-door time required for a 200 or 250-mile trip by rail would compare favorably with that for an air trip.

The availability of this type of rail service would also tend to inhibit the growth of the relatively slow form of air travel, the vertical or short-takeoff air transport, over distances of 50 to 150 miles. Rail travel would also be in a better competitive position with respect to buses, particularly in light of recent and prospective reduction in bus travel times, largely made possible by highway improvements. On heavily traveled routes in the 250 to 750-mile distance bracket, express buses now require only an hour or two more than comparable train service. Faster speeds may well serve to reduce passenger-mile costs by increasing vehicle and labor productivity.

As a matter of applied technology, there seems to be no question that a train with these characteristics could be developed. Rather, the questions turn on passenger market responses, on development costs, operating costs and fares including expenditures for

roadbed improvements and maintenance, a variety of new operating problems; and then on the actions and financial capabilities of the railway industry.

The industry has long been interested in improved trains and many types have been developed. Average speeds do not, however, seem to have shown significant improvement in the post-war period. In fact, important speed records were established decades ago-some have stood for a half century. Present average speeds on express trains are about 70 miles per hour in the United States, but somewhat higher averages are achieved on selected European routes. Some developmental work on light-weight high-speed trains has been under way in the United States and abroad, including the use of aircraft-type engines and improved types of rails and roadbeds. The development of economic speedy single or double car trains would also help maintain or increase traffic volume. At this writing, however, the outlook is not favorable. In the last decade or two of the century, the application of very low-cost electric power by the nuclear fusion process to railways, for example, might be a favorable factor in lowering costs and fares, particularly if the industry develops in accord with the high-projection model. As discussed in chapter 4, the air-cushion principle may be applied to rail travel, yielding a very fast and economical service.

Prospects for improved technology would seem to be considerable in rail passenger service. The basic technology was shaped many decades ago. Improvements have, of course, been introduced. The outstanding technical innovation has been the dieselelectric engine. This as well as other changes have been largely cost-saving rather than serviceimproving. Indicative of the situation is the fact that the average age of railway coaches is reported at 29 years, although many have been modernized in various ways.

It seems evident that applied technology has not fully responded to the possibilities presented by technical advances or to the influence of changing market characteristics and operating economics. The trends and position of the industry seem quite unfavorable to significant change. Nonetheless, many believe that rail transport has inherent advantages as a comfortable, speedy, and economical transport mode that could give it a more important role in intercity transport between major population centers within a 500-mile or so radius. Should the types of improvements envisaged above be widely introduced by about 1965, passenger volume in 1976 might well be double that indicated by a continuation of the recent declining trend. Such developments, however, have limited relevance for travel to outdoor recreation areas except in the West, where rail movement to ski resorts is of some importance, for example, and in the East with respect to this type of travel as well as for sightseeing in major cities.

Short of radical technologic innovation, some improvement in the position of the industry could result from a wider application of steps that have been taken by individual railways in recent years. Among these are various types of service improvement, economical sleeper service, self-propelled cars,

new and more attractive equipment, increased operational efficiency, and various types of market promotion including fare reductions. Developments favorable to railways in taxation and finance as well as in operating methods and costs would also help.

Bus Travel

Increased bus traffic volume could come from better and more comfortable service that would attract more patronage. Among the possibilities are further improvements in busses, terminals, and so on, as well as faster speeds in consequence of better highways. Low fares may be made possible by a combination of developments in technology and operating economics. For example, lower costs may result from technical developments in vehicles such as lighter weight buses and more economical engines or from better operating economics such as higher average loads or load factors in buses, larger buses on high traffic density routes with resulting lower unit costs and favorable developments in taxation.

Beyond these specific factors are some favorable effects on bus traffic of curtailments in train service which could contribute to an improved position of the intercity bus industry in many ways. Apart from the possibilities of absorbing rail traffic, new traffic movements could be generated or diverted from automobile travel by a convenient, low-cost, fast and comfortable service. The scenic values of bus travel are often stressed. Traffic promotional efforts are also important and the leading intercity bus companies have undertaken extensive programs of this kind. The growth of the country as reflected in the spreading out of the population generally favors bus travel because of the ability of buses to use the highway network as contrasted with the dependence of trains on fixed rails.

With respect to recent trends, it should be noted that bus volume has been helped by an expansion of the important charter business which is covered by the data presented above. Scheduled service shows a somewhat more rapid decline. The data given in the table,

as estimated by the Interstate Commerce Commission, go beyond common carrier scheduled service. The latter is placed at about 14 billion passenger-miles, as compared with the 20 billion passenger-mile total. In the event, which many consider probable, that rail service, particularly pullman service, is severely curtailed on many routes, the intercity bus industry would be faced with the challenge of attracting former railway travelers. Possibly a differential class of service with smaller buses or lesser density seating or other service changes would be generally introduced, and some efforts in these directions have been made.

Projection Method

Any specific estimate can only serve to illustrate the possibilities suggested by the foregoing review. One way of doing this is to envision a stabilization of the per capita consumption of passenger-miles at about the 1965 level of 185 passenger-miles per capita that is indicated by the extension of recent trends, as described in the "low" projection above. No significant change in trend seems possible before then. Because of the expected increase in population, traffic volume would rise by about 10 percent from 1960 to 1976. If this projection method is carried forward to the year 2000, a further rise of nearly 50 percent in passenger-mile volume above the 1976 level is obtained.

The 185 passenger-mile per capita rate represents about two-thirds of that realized in 1953 for the less than 500-mile length-of-trip bracket. This seems to be about as high as can be reasonably expected, particularly in light of prospective developments in auto and air travel.

As is generally the case in transportation, a higher volume is conceivable. This would seem to require a combination of developments favoring common carriers, including the early wide introduction of speedy economical trains or other technological changes noted above. Buses would benefit from improvements in highways noted in chapter 4 on automobile transportation.