Additional Information About the 1996-2006 Projections Readers interested in more information about projections and details on the labor force, economic growth, industry and occupational employment, or methods and assumptions should consult the November 1997 Monthly Labor Review; Employment Outlook: 1996-2006, BLS Bulletin 2502; or the Winter 1997-98 Occupational Outlook Quarterly. Information on the limitations inherent in economic projections also can be found in these publications. For more information about employment change, job openings, earnings, unemployment rates, and training requirements by occupation, consult Occupational Projections and Training Data, 1998 Edition, BLS Bulletin 2501. For occupational information from an industry perspective including some occupations and career paths that the Occupational Outlook Handbook does not cover, consult the 1998-99 Career Guide to Industries, BLS Bulletin 2503. The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) projects that the labor force will grow to 14.9 million between 1996 and 2006. This is 1.2 million less than the previous 10 years reflecting a slower growth in the civilian noninstitutional population 16 years of age and older. Growth was much faster from 1976 to 1986, when the baby boomers were entering the labor force. The labor force will grow 11 percent between 1996 and 2006, slightly slower than during the 1986-96 period but only half the rate of growth during the 1976-86 period. As a result of an increase in the percentage of the population working or looking for work, the labor force will continue to grow faster than the population rate. • Between 1996 and 2006, employment will increase by 18.6 million or 14 percent. This is slower than during the 198696 period, when the economy added 21 million jobs. Wage and salary worker employment will account for 94 percent of this increase. In addition, the number of self-employed workers is expected to increase to 11.6 million in 2006, while the number of unpaid family workers will decline. The labor force growth of Hispanics, Asians and other races, will be faster than for blacks and white non-Hispanics. The projected labor force growth of these ethnic groups stems primarily from immigration. • Despite relatively slow growth, white non-Hispanics will have the largest numerical growth between 1996 and 2006. Between 1996 and 2006, women's share of the labor force is projected to slowly increase from 46 to 47 percent, continuing a pattern since 1976. The participation rate for women will continue to increase for those 20- to 65-years old. The number of men in the labor force will grow at a slower rate than in the past, in part reflecting declining employment in well-paid production jobs in manufacturing, and a continued shift in demand for workers from the goodsproducing sector to the service-producing sector. Participation rates for men will decline for all age groups below age 45 except for 16-19; the rates for those 16-19 will remain steady at 53 percent. Rates for age groups 45 and above will increase. Workers over age 45 will account for a larger share of the labor force as the baby-boom generation ages. Two age groups with large numbers of baby boomers will grow by more than 30 percent-people 45 to 54 and those 55 to 64. Only the trailing edge of the baby boomers, those born from 1962 to 1964, will be younger than 45 in 2006. The very large group of workers aged 35 to 44, which is about one-fourth of the labor force, will change hardly at all during the period. The 25- to 34-year old group will decline by 3.0 million, a result of falling birth rates in the late 1960's. Those 16 to 24 will increase by more than 3.0 million, making this group the largest it has been in 25 years. |