SUMMARY 23 The purpose of this article is to show the following: Full scale space colonization now would lead to insurmountable social difficulties, almost certainly resulting in widespread oppression, violence and global disaster. A small scale colonization program could be undertaken without haste. The benefits of such a small scale program would be genuine but limited compared to what is frequently mentioned; in particular there is no way in which it could help us solve the three great problems of our age: the threat of war, order without oppression within social units, and the limitation of population growth. There is more hope to solve these three problems now on Earth than there would be after full scale [1] space colonization has started. If and when the three problems just mentioned have been solved, large scale space colonization may be undertaken. But that is still far in the future. A moratorium on large scale space colonization should soon be negotiated and then enforced. In preparation for it, the public and 三 governments should be made aware of the dangers of premature space colonization. Furthermore, efforts should be made to build all "space installations" of even a limited program under international, or at least multinational auspices. REFERENCES, FOOTNOTES 1. 2. G. K. O'Neill, Physics Today, September 1974, p. 31. G. K. O'Neill, Nature, 250 636 (1974). 3. G. Chedd, New Scientist, October 1974, p. 247. 4. 5. G. K. O'Neill, Testimony before the Subcommittee on Space Science and Applications, Committee on Science and Technology, U. S. House of Representatives, July 23, 1975. G. K. O'Neill, Science, 190, p. 943, December 1975. 6. G. K. O'Neill, in Hearings before the Subcommittee on Aerospace Technology and National Needs, Committee on Aeronautical and Space Sciences, U. S. Senate, January 19 and 21, 1976. 7. G. K. O'Neill, Astronautics and Aeronautics, p. 20, October 1976. 8. Ron Chernow, The Smithsonian Magazine, Volume 6, No. 11, p. 62 (1976). 9. This does not necessarily indicate a lack of sophistication. It is largely due to the complex nature of these problems. Furthermore, predictive power is, of course, not the only measure of usefulness in the social sciences. 10. It reminds me of the man who attempted the construction of a Bridge without adequate design work, pointing out that the bridge being of a new type, there was no way of foreseeing what it would do without trying it. 11. Bertrand de Jouvenal, "On Power," Viking Press, New York (1949). track of more than a few hundred friends, relatives and enemies. New from the World Future Society The Study of the Future By Edward Cornish with Members and Staff of the World Future Society, Washington, DC. 1977 320 pages. Paperback. A general introduction to futurism and future studies Chapters discuss the history of the futurist movement ways to introduce future-oriented think ing into organizations the philosophical assumptions underlying studies of the future methods of forecasting current thinking about what may happen as a result of the current revolutionary changes in human society etc It also includes descriptions of the life and thinking of prominent futurists and an annotated guide to further reading Comment Many people have sought a readable introduction to the futures field None of the books on the market seemed quite suitable, so the World Future Society has devel oped this unique book To speak honestly though perhaps immodestly. we bebeve it is the best introduction to futurism now available for the average reader ADRECTORY OF INDIVIDUALS EDUCATIONAL PROGRAMS OTHER RESOURCES This is a guide to individuals, organizations, educational programs and courses current research projects. periodicals books and reports, films and videotapes, audiotapes games and simulations, and other information sources This book was prepared by the Society in response to the countless queries it receives each year from people who want to know where to go for information about forecasting and futurism. Supported in part by grants from the National Science Foundation and the Congressional Research Service, the Society labored more than a year to complete the survey of the field on which this volume is based Comment "This is the most complete and accurate guide now available, and is strongly recommended Space Colonization: by Paul L. Csonka A large-scale space colonization program now would probably lead to widespread oppression, violence, and global disaster, argues a scientist. He believes that only a small, strictly supervised number of space settlements should be permitted until humanity becomes less violent and forms a world government capable of policing space. The dream of leaving the Earth and reaching the stars is probably as old as the human race. It certainly predates the invention of writing, as attested by ancient legends and mythologies Through the millennia, the concept of extraterres trial life and travel has proved to be a rich source of entertainment and inspiration. It also has been quite harmless That state of affairs has changed in recent years. Largely as a result of the interesting analysis of Princeton physicist Gerard K O'Neill and his coworkers in the United States, and other scientists abroad, it has become clear that we could now start large-scale colonization of space if we wished to do so. The dream of permanently leaving the Earth could become a reality. And therein lies the danger. Before presenting my arguments I must emphasize that I am not against space colonization. I hope that it is successfully undertaken some day. But mankind should not plunge into such an adventure before conditions are ripe for it, and I believe that at the present time they are not It is not our technological maturity which I doubt In fact, I have high regard for the work of O'Neill and his collaborators who have presented a convincing argument that our industrial capacity could cope with the task of colonization. Their calculations have proved to be realistic, although occasionally on the optimistic side. My objections are of a social and political nature. Under the conditions prevailing today, immediate large-scale space colonization is likely to have disastrous consequences for the human race The Proposed Program for How could one commence large-scale space colonization today? O'Neill suggests a multi-stage process In the first stage, a Model 1" space colony would The first space colony could look like a giant wheel floating in space The burnished disc that hangs suspended over the wheel is a floating mirror panel that reflects sunlight down onto slanted panels and into shields that screen out cosmic rays. Photo NASA be constructed capable of supporting about 10.000 people inside a space cylinder about a mile long and with a radius of several hundred feet. This could then serve as a base to construct a larger Model 2 space colony with about 100.000-200.000 people and a cylindrical volume about 30 times larger than for the previous model. That in turn, could be used to construct Model 3. which would be several miles wide and long and house about a million people. Even larger models might come later Various industries would be established in the successive models. The production costs in some of these industries would be less than in similar industries on the Earth, for example, high-strength single crystals might be cheaply manufactured in zero gravity high-vacuum environment and solar energy would be more plentiful In this way. Model 1 could partly pay for itself" starting immediately after it becomes operational. thus reducing the otherwise exorbitant construction costs of Model 2. etc. The technology to accomplish this multistage construction project is only partly available today: the rest would have to be developed along the way. According to O Neill, Model 1 could be operational by 1988, Model 2 by Author Paul L Csonka warns that disaster could result if humanity plunges into largescale space colonization in the near future 1996. Model 3 by 2002. and starting about the year 2014 the work force of a parent colony could build a daughter colony within 6 years, relying entirely on its own resources plus raw materials found in outer space, with no assistance from the Earth. This doubling time of six years is to be compared with the present doubling time of Earth's population. 35 years Accordingly. from about the year 2050, the number of places available in the space colonies would increase so fast that they could absorb the population increase not only on the Earth but also in the colonies. Thereafter population density could be decreased everywhere. The price of implementing this program would be around five billion dollars per year (in 1972 dollars) (For more on space colonies see "Space Colonies The High Frontier by Gerard O'Neill in THE FUTURIST. February 1976, pp. 25-33) The Arguments for Colonization Why should humanity embark on this proposed gigantic expansion project? According to O'Neill and his coworkers, there are several arguments in favor of such a plan. I will try to give a fair summary of these arguments as presented by ONeill in Physics Today (September, 1974) (The ordering is mine) 1 Cultural diversity will flourish. O'Neill says that the technical imperatives of this kind of migration of people and industry into space are likely to encourage self-sufficiency small-scale governmental units, cultural diversity and a high degree of independence A community of 20 000 people, eager to preserve its own culture and language. can even remain largely isolated. Free diverse social experimentations could thrive in such a protected, self-sufficient environment (For such reasons many young Maoists are now enthusiastically in favor of space colonization.) 2. Good land" will be plentiful. The history of the last 30 years suggests that warfare in the nuclear age is strongly. although not wholly motivated by territorial conflicts-battles over limited nonextendable pieces of land. O'Neill maintains The construction of new living spaces may eliminate the cause of such conflicts. Furthermore, one may be hopeful that colonization will be peaceful We already have a treaty banning nuclear weapons from space, and the colonies can obtain all the energy they could ever THE FUTURIST, October 1977 285 |