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(Financial Situation, continued from page 72) But the amalgamation of these two British paper currencies-against which the combined gold reserve is even now 35 per cent, or little less than the 40 per cent required against our own Federal Reserve notes-will unquestionably be urged. What measures, if any, would be taken to accumulate a larger home reserve of gold, is probably still an uncertain consideration. An American loan, similar in purpose

The powerful economic forces which at the end. of 1914, when New York was the only central market in the world to maintain such payments, turned the gold movement wholly in our direction and immensely fortified the Federal Reserve, even before we began our trade in war munitions, would at once be called into operation in favor of Great Britain.

to our own London "resumption loan of 1878,5 THERE can be little doubt that the export

would not necessarily be involved; it would be possible to keep in England all or most of the gold which the Transvaal produces and exports. These are details and technicalities. The United States learned in 1879, as England will also unquestionably learn when it makes up its official mind to resumption of gold payments, that larger considerations are invoked by such a step than the mere fact of possible shifts in foreign trade and in rates of foreign exchange. Resumption of British gold payments, assurance that foreign capital deposited at London will no longer be subject to the risk of loss if the sterling rate should depreciate heavily before the deposit was recalled, would surely mean a movement of foreign capital to London such as has not occurred since British gold payments were suspended at the outbreak of the war.

Aspects of

Our Own
Gold

Exports

movement of gold from the United States is in large measure a response to this prospective change in England, with such sequel as is expected to attend it in the rest of Europe. Unlike many past gold-export movements from New York, the very large shipments of this season have not been accompanied either by tightening money rates or by a falling percentage of bank reserves to liabilities. Discount rates on the New York market have ruled only a fraction over the rates of last summer, which were nearly at the low pre-war record. Money has, in fact, been cheaper this year at New York than at London. Notwithstanding the export since November of $125,000,000 gold (which was drawn from the Federal Reserve) the twelve Reserve banks held at (Financial Situation, continued on page 74)

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the end of January a reserve of $3,082,000,000, almost entirely gold, and this was double the $1,460,000,000 required against the existing total of deposits and circulation, on the basis of the percentage which the law prescribes.

It is not possible to predict with assurance exactly how long this gold export movement will continue, or what total sum it will reach, or exactly where the "reserve ratio" of the Federal banks will stand when it has run its course. That will undoubtedly depend in some degree on the actual machinery invoked for European gold resumption, on the continuance or halt of American investment in European securities, on the scope of home trade. revival and its requisitions on home capital and credit. But the outstanding fact of the mpment is that two problems which have baffled the economic world since the war ended-how gold resumption in Europe could possibly be effected, and how the United States could avoid being submerged in a continuous flood of foreign gold which it did not need and could not use are at least in the way of practical solution.

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as the

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GUARANTEED STOCKS

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CHARLES SCRIBNER'S SONS
Publishers of SCRIBNER'S MAGAZINE

In writing to advertisers please mention SCRIBNER'S MAGAZINE

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