than last year. In Louisiana and Mississippi the worm has done no damage. On Red River they have escaped the floods which did so much harm in 1849 and in 1850. The early frost in Tennessee, near the close of September, did not do as much harm as the frost on the 6th of October last season. The slight drought, which pervaded the entire region, is the only drawback to a large and full crop. The receipts at New Orleans, instead of ranging near those of the last two years, will probably come up as high as those of 1848 and 1849. The average of these two years may be taken as the probable receipts of 1852. From Texas an increase may also be expected. If we combine these results (Table II. ), the whole crop for 1852 may be estimated at 2,550,000 bales. The imports from the East Indies will be much less than for the last two years. These are so much affected by the price at Liverpool, that we may be sure a decline in the shipments will follow a decline in the prices. The actual production in India is very large, compared with the exports, and when the price in England will pay the cost of inland transportation to the seaport and the long voyage round the Cape, a large amount is easily spared for export. The high prices in 1850 raised the English imports from the East Indies up to 308,000 bales, against 182,000 in 1849, and 228,000 in 1848. The present year of high prices witnesses the same increase. The Liverpool receipts on the 3d of October were 164,000 bales against 128,000 bales at the same time in 1850. For the whole year they will reach 350,000 bales for the United Kingdom. For 1852 the decline will be large, but the imports will not probably fall back at once to the figures before 1850. They may be safely estimated at 250,000 bales (Table III.). The receipts from Brazil, Egypt, and other places, are small, and nearly stationary. For the last eleven years the lowest were 135,000 bales in 1847, and the highest 257,000 bales in 1850. The imports into Liverpool have declined from 205,000 bales in 1850, to 138,000 bales in 1851. The average for Great Britain for the last five years, from 1847 to 1851, has been 192,000 bales, and this may be regarded as the probable amount for 1852. (Table IV.) If the estimated receipts from all these sources be combined, the result for 1852 will be a probable supply of 3,000,000 bales. (Table V.) The consumption of cotton during the present year has been seriously affected by the high prices. The American manufacturers have closed their mills to a very large extent. The same check has been felt in France. On the rest of the continent the consumption has not receded. In England the high prices in the early part of the season reduced the purchases of the manufacturers, but since the decline in prices these deliveries have outrun those of last year, and approached those of 1849 (table VI). In fact, as there was an error in the estimated consumption of 1819 of fifty or sixty thousand bales, and as the reported deliveries have been, this year, checked by quarterly examinations of the stocks, the demand for the present year has already equalled the very large demand of 1849. For the whole year, the consumption of Great Britain will probably reach 1,600,000 bales, against 1,515,000 in 1850, 1,590,000 in 1849, and 1;464,000 in 1848. Every element of business favors a still larger demand for 1852. Peace everywhere prevails; the harvest has been gathered from South to North, under favorable auspices. The price of wheat is very low-12 or 15 per cent lower than last year. Money is abundant; the currency is undisturbed; capital is profitably employed; labor is well rewarded; the export trade as well as the home market is in a healthy condition; the manufacturers are not overstocked with goods; the price of cotton will be moderate-25 or 30 per cent lower than last year. Under these circumstances the English demand for 1852 must exceed that of any former year. It will probably reach 1,650,000 bales-it may be 1,700,000. From France the prospect is not so promising. Political troubles of a serious character will probably accompany the elections for the next President. If the constitution shall be revised, and a constituent Assembly called for that purpose, the appeal to first principles, and the entire overturning of all that is now established, will endanger the public peace. If the constitution shall not be revised, the reelection of Louis Napoleon will be a signal for revolution, because it will be done in violation of the law, and of his oath to support the constitution. If some new man is elected, uncertainty and distrust will attend all the operations of business, until his government shall attain stability, and secure the public confidence. We may not, therefore, expect a large consumption for 1852, although the prices of cotton will be moderate. For 1851 the French comsumption of American cotton will not vary much from 300,000. We have exported 301,000 bales from the 1st of September, 1850, to the 1st of September, 1851, and the stocks in Havre of American cotton on the 1st of October were 26,505 bales against 32,274 in 1850-indicating a probable consumption of 307,000 bales. This was a little higher than last year, but much less than for 1849. Our exports to France in 1850 were 289,000 bales, and a decrease of stocks to the amount of 11,000 bales showed a consumption of 300,000. In 1849 it was 351,000. In 1852 the distrust on account of political troubles will probably neutralize the stimulating influence of low or moderate prices, so that we may estimate the probable wants of France at 300,000 bales. On the Continent the high prices of the last two years have prevented any increase of the consumption, but they have not reduced it below the average of former years. The exports for 1851 from America and England will not differ much from 350,000 bales. (Table VII.) This exceeds every former year except 1849, when the crop was very large and prices very low. For 1852 we may confidently expect an increase, unless political troubles, started in France, should excite disturbances and revolutions in the neighboring States on the Continent. In our own country the large decline in the consumption for 1851 is the most remarkable and singular event in the history of our manufactures. Hitherto, from year to year, almost without exception, our progress has been uniformly onward. High prices of the material seem never to have affected us. But for the past year our consumption is 83,000. bales below 1850, and 114,000 below 1849. It is lower than any year since 1845. If this were attributed to the high prices of last year, it might be hoped that the decline we have now experienced would again start our mills and revive the demand of our home manufactures. But it is much to be feared that this is not the case, and that the diminished consumption is due in part to other causes. Among these the tariff of 1846 holds a conspicuous place. The first year after the tariff went into operation, the high price of food in every part of Europe, not only discouraged the foreign manufacturer from entering into competition with us, but, by creating a demand for our breadstuffs abroad, increased our ability to consume all kinds of goods. This home market stimulated the American mannufacturer, and the following year our domestic consumption rose from 428,000 to 532,000 bales. In 1849 the productions of foreign looms began to exclude our home-made goods from the market, and the consumption fell off 14,000 bales. The high prices of 1850 gave an increased advantage to the English factories, and the northern manufacturers bought 31,000 bales less than in 1849. These same causes operating for a still longer period in 1851, the American consumption declined still farther, till it had reached the low figure of 404,000 bales. Another cause that has produced a decided effect is the increase of manufactories in the South and West. These have not only supplied the Southern and Western demand for yarn and the coarser cloths, but have shipped large and increasing amounts of yarn to New York and Philadelphia markets. The high prices of the last year have not, to any considerable extent, checked this consumption. The estimate in the New York Shipping List of a decline from 110,000 bales to 75,000 appears to be entirely too large. Instead of a decline in Georgia from 20,500 bales to 13,000, there has been probably an increase, on account of the starting of new factories. So also in South Carolina and Alabama. The products of the southern and western mills being consumed principally at home, where general prosperity has not checked the demand, the sales of goods have not been materially reduced. The coarse yarns can be made as cheap at the South as at the North, and the cost of transportation gives the South the advantage. These two reasons will help to explain the check given to northern consumption. The low or moderate prices of the coming year will probably set to work more or less of these mills, because when the raw material is low, the advantage of the American manufacturer over the English in the cost of transportation is much increased. The demand at the North will not, however, reach the amount of 1850 or 1849, but it will probably exceed that of 1851 by 40,000 or 50,000 bales (Table VIII). If these estimates for the consumption of 1852 be combined, the result will be a demand for 3,000,000 bales (Table IX). As this is equal to the probable supply (Table V), the question of price will be much affected by the stocks. These are now lower than they have been for the two preceding years (Table X), although the last crop of the United States and the receipts from India have very much increased over the amounts of 1850. It would seem, therefore, very improbable that prices can be kept down below their average. In the first half of the last year, from September, 1850, to February, 1851, the price of good middling in New Orleans ranged from 13 to 133c. From March to August it has regularly declined, being quoted successively on the 1st of each month 10, 111, 103, 95, 9, and 81c., and now (October 29th) it is still lower, being quoted at Charleston, October 23d, at 7 to 7c. The probable supply is not above the probable wants of the world, and with low stocks the present low range of prices cannot be maintained. The crop is large, and can only be consumed at an average moderate price, and this much may with confidence be anticipated. |