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1998 employment: 27,000

Projected 1998-2008 employment change: About as fast as average Most significant source of training: Moderate-term on-the-job training

Medical equipment repairers

Test, adjust, and repair electromedical equipment using hand tools and

meters.

1998 employment: 11,000

Projected 1998-2008 employment change: About as fast as average Most significant source of training: Long-term on-the-job training

Precision instrument repairers

Install, test, repair, maintain, and adjust indicating, recording, telemetering, and controlling instruments used to measure and control variables such as pressure, flow, temperature, motion, force, and chemical composition. Include instrument repairers who repair, calibrate, and test instruments such as voltmeters, ammeters, and galvanometers.

1998 employment: 33,000

Projected 1998-2008 employment change: A decline

Most significant source of training: Long-term on-the-job training

Riggers

Set up or repair rigging for ships and shipyards, manufacturing plants, logging yards, construction projects, and for the entertainment industry. Select cables, ropes, pulleys, winches, blocks, and sheaves according to weight and size of load to be moved. Coordinate and direct other workers and the movement of equipment to accomplish the task.

1998 employment: 11,000

Projected 1998-2008 employment change: Little or no change Most significant source of training: Long-term on-the-job training

Tire repairers and changers

Repair and replace tires, tubes, treads, and related products on automobiles, buses, trucks, and other vehicles. Duties include mounting tires on wheels, balancing tires and wheels, and testing and repairing damaged tires and inner tubes.

1998 employment: 83,000

Projected 1998-2008 employment change: About as fast as average Most significant source of training: Short-term on-the-job training

Watch repairers

Repair, clean, and adjust mechanisms of instruments such as watches, time clocks, and timing switches using hand tools and measuring instruments.

and nails, or power tools. May also clear brush or plant trees along rights-of-way.

1998 employment: 155,000

Projected 1998-2008 employment change: About as fast as average Most significant source of training: Short-term on-the-job training

Mining, quarrying, and tunneling occupations Rock splitters, quarry: Separate blocks of rough dimension stone from quarry mass using jackhammer, wedges, and feathers. Roof bolters: Operate self-propelled machine to install roof support bolts in underground mine. Mining machine operators: Operate mining machines, such as self-propelled or truck-mounted drilling machines, continuous mining machines, channeling machines, and cutting machines to extract coal, metal and nonmetal ores, rock, stone, or sand from underground or surface excavation. Exclude truck, shovel, and conveyor operators. Continuous mining machine operators: Operate self-propelled mining machines that rip coal, metal and nonmetal ores, rock, stone, or sand from the face and load it onto conveyors or into shuttle cars in a continuous operation. Mine cutting and channeling machine operators: Operate machines that cut or channel along the face or seams of coal mines, stone quarries, or other mining surfaces to facilitate blasting, separating, or removing minerals or materials from mines or from the earth's surface. Include shale planers.

1998 employment: 23,000

Projected 1998-2008 employment change: A decline
Most significant source of training: Long-term on-the-job training

Pipelayers and pipelaying fitters

Pipelayers: Lay glazed or unglazed clay, concrete, plastic, or cast-iron pipe for storm or sanitation sewers, drains, water mains, and oil or gas lines. Perform any combination of the following tasks: Grade trenches or culverts, position pipe, or seal joints. Pipelaying fitters: Align pipeline section in preparation of welding. Signal tractor driver for placement of pipeline sections in proper alignment. Insert steel spacer.

1998 employment: 57,000

Projected 1998-2008 employment change: Slower than average
Most significant source of training: Moderate-term on-the-job training

Roustabouts, oil and gas

Perform a variety of assigned tasks in or around an oil field such as assembling or repairing equipment, digging drainage trenches, and loading or unloading trucks.

1998 employment: 30,000

Projected 1998-2008 employment change: A decline

Most significant source of training: Short-term on-the-job training

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Boiler operators and tenders, low pressure

Operate or tend low-pressure stationary steam boilers and auxiliary steam equipment, such as pumps, compressors and air-conditioning equipment, to supply steam heat for office buildings, apartment houses, or industrial establishments; to maintain steam at specified pressure aboard marine vessels; or to generate and supply compressed air for operation of pneumatic tools, hoists, and air lances.

1998 employment: 16,000

Projected 1998-2008 employment change: A decline

Most significant source of training: Moderate-term on-the-job training

Cannery workers

Perform a variety of routine tasks in canning, freezing, preserving, or packing food products. Duties may include sorting, grading, washing, peeling, trimming, or slicing agricultural produce.

1998 employment: 50,000

Projected 1998-2008 employment change: A decline

Most significant source of training: Short-term on-the-job training

Cement and gluing machine operators and tenders Operate or tend cementing and gluing machines to join together items to form a completed product or to form an article for further processing. Processes include: Joining veneer sheets into plywood; gluing paper to glass wool, cardboard or paper; joining rubber and rubberized fabric parts, plastic, simulated leather, and other materials.

1998 employment: 35,000

Projected 1998-2008 employment change: A decline

Most significant source of training: Moderate-term on-the-job training

Chemical equipment controllers, operators, and tenders

Controllers and operators: Control or operate equipment to control chemical changes or reactions in the processing of industrial or consumer products. Exclude operators who control equipment centrally controlled through panel boards. Tenders: Tend equipment in which a chemical change or reaction takes place in the processing of industrial or consumer products. Typical equipment used are: Devulcanizers, batch stills, fermenting tanks, steam-jacketed kettles, and reactor vessels.

1998 employment: 100,000

Projected 1998-2008 employment change: About as fast as average Most significant source of training: Moderate-term on-the-job training

Chemical plant and system operators

Control and operate an entire chemical process or system of machines, such as reduction pots and heated air towers, through the use of panelboards, control boards, or semiautomatic equipment.

1998 employment: 43,000

Projected 1998-2008 employment change: About as fast as average Most significant source of training: Long-term on-the-job training

Coil winders, tapers, and finishers

Wind wire coils used in electrical components, such as resistors and transformers, and in electrical equipment and instruments, such as field cores, bobbins, armature cores, electrical motors, generators, and control equipment. May involve the use of coil-winding and coil-making machines.

1998 employment: 22,000 Projected 1998-2008 employment change: Slower than average Most significant source of training: Short-term on-the-job training

Cooking and roasting machine operators and tenders, food and tobacco

Cooking machine operators and tenders: Operate or tend cooking equipment, such as steam cooking vats, deep fry cookers, pressure cookers, kettles, and boilers, to prepare food products, such as meats, sugar, cheese, and grain. Exclude food roasting, baking, and drying machine operators and tenders. Roasting, baking, and drying machine operators and tenders: Operate or tend roasting, baking, or drying equipment to: Reduce moisture content of food or tobacco products, such as tobacco, cocoa and coffee beans, macaroni, and grain; roast grain, nuts, or coffee beans; bake bread or other bakery products; or process food preparatory to canning. These machines include hearth ovens, kiln driers, roasters, char kilns, steam ovens, and vacuum drying equipment.

1998 employment: 31,000

Projected 1998-2008 employment change: A decline
Most significant source of training: Moderate-term on-the-job training

Crushing, grinding, mixing, and blending machine operators and tenders

Crushing, grinding, and polishing machine operators and tenders: Operate or tend machines to crush or grind any of a wide variety of materials, such as coal, glass, plastic, dried fruit, grain, stone, chemicals, food, or rubber; or operate or tend machines that buff and polish materials or products, such as stone, glass, slate, plastic or metal trim, bowling balls, or eyeglasses. Mixing and blending machine operators and tenders: Operate or tend machines to mix or blend any of a wide variety of materials, such as spices, dough batter, tobacco, fruit juices, chemicals, livestock feed, food products, color pigments, or explosive ingredients.

1998 employment: 150,000

Projected 1998-2008 employment change: Slower than average
Most significant source of training: Moderate-term on-the-job training

Cutting and slicing machine setters, operators, and tenders

Operators and tenders: Operate or tend machines to cut or slice any of a wide variety of products or materials, such as tobacco, food, paper, roofing slate, glass, stone, rubber, cork, and insulating material. Exclude metal, wood, and plastic sawing machine operators and tenders, and textile cutting machine operators and tenders. Setters and setup operators: Set up or set up and operate machines that cut or slice materials, such as glass, stone, cork, rubber, crepe, wallboard, and fibrous insulating board, to specified dimensions for further processing. Exclude wood sawyers, metal or plastic sawyers, shear or slitter operators, and textile setters and set-up operators.

1998 employment: 96,000

Projected 1998-2008 employment change: Slower than average
Most significant source of training: Moderate-term on-the-job training

Dairy processing equipment operators, including setters

Set up, operate, or tend continuous flow or vat-type equipment to process milk, cream, or other dairy products, following specified methods and formulas.

1998 employment: 15,000

Projected 1998-2008 employment change: A decline
Most significant source of training: Moderate-term on-the-job training

Electrical and electronic assemblers

Perform electrical and electronic assembly work at a level less than that required of precision assemblers. Include electronic wirers, armature connectors, electric motor winders, skein winders, carbon brush assemblers, battery and battery parts assemblers, electric sign assemblers, and electrical and electronic subassemblers.

1998 employment: 246,000

Projected 1998-2008 employment change: Slower than average Most significant source of training: Short-term on-the-job training

Extruding and forming machine setters, operators, and tenders

Operators and tenders: Operate or tend machines to shape and form any of a wide variety of manufactured products, such as glass bulbs, molded food and candy, rubber goods, clay products, wax products, tobacco plugs, cosmetics, or paper products, by means of extruding, compressing or compacting. Setters and setup operators: Set up or set up and operate machines, such as glass forming machines, plodder machines, and tuber machines, to manufacture any of a wide variety of products, such as soap bars, formed rubber, glassware, food, brick, and tile, by means of extruding, compressing, or compacting.

1998 employment: 126,000

Projected 1998-2008 employment change: Slower than average
Most significant source of training: Moderate-term on-the-job training

Farm workers

Food and fiber crops: Manually plant, cultivate, and harvest food and fiber products such as grains, vegetables, fruits, nuts, and field crops (e.g., cotton, mint, hops, and tobacco). Use hand tools such as shovels, trowels, hoes, tampers, pruning hooks, shears, and knives. Duties may include tilling soil and applying fertilizers; transplanting, weeding, thinning, or pruning crops; applying fungicides, herbicides, or pesticides; and packing and loading harvested products. May construct trellises, repair fences and farm buildings, or participate in irrigation activities. Include workers involved in expediting pollination and those who cut seed tuber crops into sections for planting. Farm and ranch animals: Attend to live farm or ranch animals that may include cattle, sheep, swine, goats, and poultry produced for animal products such as meat, fur, skins, feathers, milk, and eggs. Duties may include feeding, watering, herding, grazing, castrating, branding, debeaking, weighing, catching, and loading animals. May maintain records on animals; examine animals to detect diseases and injuries; assist in birth deliveries; and administer medications, vaccinations, or insecticides as appropriate. May clean and maintain animal housing areas. Include workers who tend dairy milking machines, shear wool from sheep, collect eggs in hatcheries, place shoes on animals' hooves, and tend bee colonies.

1998 employment: 851,000

Projected 1998-2008 employment change: A decline
Most significant source of training: Short-term on-the-job training

Foundry mold assembly and shakeout workers

Prepare molds for pouring. Duties include: Cleaning and assembling foundry molds, and tending machine that bonds cope and drag together to form completed shell mold.

1998 employment: 9,300

Projected 1998-2008 employment change: Little or no change

Most significant source of training: Moderate-term on-the-job training

Furnace, kiln, oven, drier, or kettle operators and tenders

Operate or tend heating equipment other than basic metal or plastic processing equipment. Oven operators or tenders: Bake fiberglass or painted products, fuse glass or enamel to metal products, carbonize coal, or cure rubber or other products. Furnace operators or tenders: Anneal glass, roast sulfur, convert chemicals, or process petroleum. Kettle operators and tenders: Boil soap, or melt antimony or asphalt materials. Drier operators and tenders: Remove moisture from paper, chemicals, ore, clay products, or slurry. Kiln operators and tenders: Heat minerals, dry lumber, fire greenware, anneal glassware, or bake clay products.

1998 employment: 25,000

Projected 1998-2008 employment change: A decline

Most significant source of training: Moderate-term on-the-job training

Furnace operators and tenders

Operate or tend furnaces, such as gas, oil, coal, electric-arc or electric induction, open-hearth, or oxygen furnaces, to melt and refine metal before casting or to produce specified types of steel. Exclude heattreating and related furnace operators.

1998 employment: 23,000

Projected 1998-2008 employment change: A decline
Most significant source of training: Moderate-term on-the-job training

Gas and petroleum plant and systems occupations Gaugers: Gauge and test oil in storage tanks. Regulate flow of oil into pipelines at wells, tank farms, refineries, and marine and rail terminals, following prescribed standards and regulations. Petroleum refinery and control panel operators: Analyze specifications and control continuous operation of petroleum refining and processing units. Operate control panel to regulate temperature, pressure, rate of flow, and tank level in petroleum refining unit, according to process schedules. Gas plant operators: Distribute or process gas for utility companies and others. Distribute gas for an entire plant or process, often using panelboards, control boards, or semi-automatic equipment. Petroleum pump systems operators: Control or operate manifold and pumping systems to circulate liquids through a petroleum refinery. Exclude workers who do not operate entire manifold or pumping systems. Exclude oil pumpers who operate pipelines running outside of the refinery.

1998 employment: 38,000

Projected 1998-2008 employment change: A decline
Most significant source of training: Long-term on-the-job training

Grinders and polishers, hand

Grind and polish, using hand tools or hand-held power tools, a wide variety of metal, stone, clay, plastic, and glass objects or parts. Include grinders and chippers, polishers and buffers, metal sanders and finishers, glass grinders and polishers, and plastic buffers and finishers. Exclude precision-level workers.

1998 employment: 81,000

Projected 1998-2008 employment change: Slower than average Most significant source of training: Short-term on-the-job training

Laundry and drycleaning machine operators and tenders, except pressing

Operate or tend washing or dry-cleaning machines to wash or dry-clean commercial, industrial, or household articles, such as cloth garments, suede, leather, furs, blankets, draperies, fine linens, rugs, and carpets.

1998 employment: 167,000

Projected 1998-2008 employment change: About as fast as average Most significant source of training: Moderate-term on-the-job training

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Assumptions and Methods Used in Preparing Employment Projections

Occupational statements in the Handbook use one of six adjectives to describe projected change in employment (see page 19) The adjectives are based on numerical projections developed using the Bureau's employment projections model system. Projections of occupational employment comprise the sixth and final step in the system; the six steps are listed in the discussion of methods below. A full description, including numerical projections of employment, appears in the November 1999 Monthly Labor Review, BLS Handbook of Methods, and in Employment Outlook: 1998-2008, BLS Bulletin 2522. The Winter 1999-2000 Occupational Outlook Quarterly presents the projections in a series of charts.

The projections reflect the knowledge and judgment of staff in the Bureau's Office of Employment Projections and of knowledgeable people from other offices in the Bureau, other government agencies, colleges and universities, industries, unions, professional societies, and trade associations, who furnished data and information, prepared reports, or reviewed the projections. The Bureau takes full responsibility, however, for the projections.

Assumptions. The information in the Handbook is based on an economic projection, which is characterized by a labor force growing at the same rate as during the past 10year period (1988-98), faster productivity growth, a constant unemployment rate, increasing trade deficits, and a Federal budget surplus. Other assumptions include moderate growth in Federal spending programs and above average growth in consumer spending on durable goods. Spending on food and beverages will grow more slowly than the average for all consumer expenditures, while spending on health care and other services, such as entertainment, recreation, and financial services, will grow faster. Investment in production equipment-including factory automation, communication, and computer items-will grow rapidly. Residential construction will grow with the population while nonresidential construction will make a comeback from depressed levels over the previous 10-year period.

Although the Bureau considers these assumptions reasonable, the economy may follow a different course, resulting in a different pattern of occupational growth. Real growth could also be different because most occupations are sensitive to a much wider variety of factors than those considered in the various models. Unforeseen changes in consumer, business, or government spending patterns and in the way goods and services are produced could greatly alter the growth of individual occupations.

Methods. This section summarizes the steps by which the Bureau arrives at projections of employment by occupation. BLS uses Bureau of the Census projections of the population by age, gender, and race, combined with projections of labor force participation rates-the percent of the specified

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These components provide the overall analytical framework needed to develop detailed employment projections. Each component is developed in order, with the results of each used as input for successive components and with some results feeding back to earlier steps. Each step is repeated a number of times to ensure internal consistency as assumptions and results are reviewed and revised.

The projections of the labor force and assumptions about other demographic variables, fiscal policy, foreign economic activity, and energy prices and availability form the input to the macroeconomic model. This model projects GDP (sales to all final consuming sectors in the economy) and the distribution of GDP by its major demand components (consumer expenditures, investment, government purchases, and net exports). Estimating the intermediate flows of goods and services-for example, the steel incorporated into automobiles-is the next step in the projections process. The resulting estimates of demand for goods and services are used to project industry output of final products as well as total output by industry.

Industry output of goods and services is then converted to industry employment. Studies of trends in productivity and technology are used to estimate future output per worker hour, and regression analysis is used to estimate worker hours. These estimates, along with output projections, are used to develop the final industry employment projections.

An industry-occupation matrix is used to project employment for wage and salary workers. The matrix shows occupational staffing patterns-each occupation as a percent of the work force in every industry. The matrix covering the 1998-2008 period includes 262 detailed industries and 521 detailed occupations. Data for current staffing patterns in the matrix come from the Bureau's Occupational Employment Statistics surveys, which collect data from employers on a 3-year cycle.

The occupational staffing patterns for each industry were projected based on anticipated changes in the way goods

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