Imágenes de páginas
PDF
EPUB

And even in reference to what is now offered for sale, it should be observed that the price does not vary in the same ratio with the deficiency or excess of supply. This depends upon the nature of the commodity, or rather upon the nature of the desire to possess it, whether it be a natural and imperative want, or only an artificial one. If the article be a mere luxury, or desired only for purposes of ostentation, a deficiency of one third in the amount offered for sale will not make the price one third larger; rather than purchase it at a cost so much enhanced, many persons will do without it altogether. If the annual supply of diamonds from the mines were reduced one half, it is not probable that the price of them would be doubled, or even that it would be materially increased; as they are of little use except for purposes of display, persons would gratify their ostentatious feelings by purchasing some other commodity at a price nearly equivalent to what they formerly paid for diamonds. Large pearls, or other gems of high cost, would answer just as well. On the other hand, if the article is a necessary of life, so that people will submit to any sacrifice rather than resign it, and especially if it be of such a nature that an apprehended scarcity of it operates strongly on the fears of the multitude, a deficiency of one third may double, triple, or quadruple the price. "The price of corn in England," says Mr. Tooke, "has risen from one hundred to two hundred per cent, when the utmost computed deficiency of the crops has not been more than between one sixth and one third below an average, and when that deficiency has been relieved by foreign supplies."

case

To what point, then, will the enhancement of price in either whether of luxuries or necessaries be carried? "To that point," says Mr. Mill, "whatever it be, which equalizes the demand and supply;—to the price which cuts off the extra third from the demand, or brings forward additional sellers sufficient to supply it." It appears, also, contrary to what might have been anticipated, that articles of high cost, and therefore in comparatively limited demand, are most steady in price; while those of prime necessity and in general use, such as breadstuffs and other provisions, are liable to sudden and violent fluctuations.

The influence of mercantile speculations on price has been

well explained by McCulloch. "It rarely happens," he says, "that either the actual supply of any species of produce in extensive demand, or the intensity of that demand, can be exactly measured. Every transaction in which produce is bought that it may be afterwards sold, is, in fact, a speculation. The buyer anticipates that the demand for the article he has purchased will be such, at some future period, either more or less distant," or at some other place, either in the same country or across sea, "that he will be able to dispose of it at a profit; and the success of the speculation depends, it is evident, on the skill with which he has estimated the circumstances that will determine the future price of the commodity. It follows, therefore, that in all highly commercial countries, where merchants are possessed of large capitals, and where they are left to be guided in the use of them by their own discretion and foresight, the prices of commodities will frequently be very much influenced, not merely by the actual occurrence of changes in the accustomed relation of the supply and demand, but by the anticipation of such changes. It is the business of the merchant to acquaint himself with every circumstance affecting the particular description of commodities in which he deals. He endeavors to obtain, by means of an extensive correspondence, the earliest and most authentic information with respect to everything that may affect their supply or demand, or the cost of their production; and if he learned that the supply of an article had failed, or that, owing to changes of fashion or to the opening of new channels of commerce, the demand for it had been increased, he would most likely be disposed to become a buyer, in anticipation of profiting by the rise of price, which, under the circumstances, could hardly fail of taking place; or if he were a holder of the article, he would refuse to part with it unless for a higher price than he would previously have accepted. If the intelligence received by the merchant were of a contrary description, if, for example, he learned that the article was now produced with greater facility, or that there was a falling off in the demand for it, caused by a change of fashion, or by the shutting up of some of the markets to which it had previously been admitted, —he would act differently; in this case, he would anticipate a fall of prices, and would either decline purchasing the article,

except at a reduced rate, or endeavor to get rid of it, supposing him to be a holder, by offering it at a lower price. In consequence of these operations, the prices of commodities, in different places and periods, are brought comparatively near to equality. All abrupt transitions, from scarcity to abundance, and from abundance to scarcity, are avoided; an excess in one case is made to balance a deficiency in another, and the supply is distributed with a degree of steadiness and regularity that could hardly have been deemed attainable.” *

All commerce, then, may be said to consist in speculation, if we leave out of view those operations which are more properly regarded as subsidiary to commerce than as forming a part of it; such as the actual transportation of commodities from one place to another, and breaking bulk, or selling by retail for the greater convenience of consumers. The rest is only buying or selling with a view to profit from an expected change of price; and the success of the dealer will depend upon the correctness of his anticipations. Speculation, then, as McCulloch remarks, "is only another name for foresight." It plays an important part in those beneficent arrangements of Providence through which the cupidity and selfishness of individuals are made to minister to the general good. To recur to an instance already cited, it is through the speculations of private merchants that the inhabitants of a great metropolis. are supplied with food and all other necessaries of life, without wastefulness and yet without stint, each family receiving every day just what it wants, and as much as it wants, and being admonished through the price to limit or economize its consumption of any one article, whenever a failure in the harvest or other mode of supply, or even the prospect of a failure, renders such economy essential.

The common prejudice against speculation arises, first, from confounding it with gambling, to which we must admit that it is very nearly allied, as the two operations run into one another by imperceptible degrees. A stock-jobber, for instance, agrees to purchase at a future day a particular amount of government stock at a certain price, expecting that the market price will rise before the day comes, so that he will make a

* McCulloch's Principles of Political Economy, 4th ed., pp. 336, 337.

profit by the bargain; the jobber who contracts to sell him the stock at that time, and on those terms, expects that the market price will fall in the mean time. But the party who agrees to sell has really no stock to dispose of, and he who agrees to purchase does not expect to receive the stock, but only to receive or pay, on the day appointed, the difference between the actual market price and the price agreed upon. Obviously, this is only betting upon the rise or fall of stocks within a given period, and is therefore properly denounced as "gambling in the stocks." On the other hand, a flour-merchant agrees to purchase, at a fixed price, a cargo of flour which has not yet arrived in port, because he has been led to believe that the price will rise, while the person who sells it to him expects it will fall; and this is admitted to be fair speculation, or a legitimate operation of trade.

How can these two cases be distinguished in principle, so as to prove that the one is censurable and the other praiseworthy? McCulloch says, "That may be termed a gambling adventure in which the contingencies are unknown, or in which they are nearly equal"; for instance, if a bet is to be decided by a throw of dice, it is gambling, because the utmost sagacity cannot determine how the dice will turn up. But if a flour-merchant contracts to purchase or deliver flour at a future day, he relies upon the information which he has obtained respecting the amount of the crops, and the probable extent of the demand, and his action, as it is thus based upon calculation and foresight, is a fair exercise of skill in trade.

It would seem to follow, then, that if one of the betters knew beforehand that the dice were loaded, and could thus anticipate how they would turn up, he would not be a gambler, but an honest man. But the common sense of mankind decides directly the other way. It may be said, indeed, that the criminality here consists in the deception, the one party using information, or having knowledge of facts, which the other party was not aware of. But then the flour-merchant often acts in the same manner, as he may have ascertained some circumstances which will probably affect the future price of grain, and he bases his action upon this knowledge, carefully concealing the facts from the person whom he deals with; and however such conduct may be viewed by strict

moralists, it is sanctioned by the almost universal custom of merchants, and is regarded as a fair exercise of activity in getting early information, and of sagacity in profiting by it.

Speculation can be accurately distinguished from gambling, as it seems to me, only by taking into account the different motives and intentions of the parties. The gambler, acting from the love of excitement almost as much as from the thirst for gain, makes bets, or forms contracts which amount to bets, with reference to the doctrine of chances only, having no regard to the effect which his transaction will have upon markets by equalizing prices and supplies. The upright merchant, excluding as far as possible all consideration of mere chance, forms no bargain if his calculations do not assure him that it must lead to a favorable result, barring only all unforeseen contingencies; his transactions are all real, or based upon the actual transfer of merchandise, with reference to the effect of such transfer upon the markets in removing a surplus from one time or place, and supplying a deficiency in another. Accidents that could not be foreseen may falsify his calculations, and bring failure and loss; but he engages in no enterprise that bears hazard upon its face, regarding this as the province of the gambler. Failure, therefore, always takes him by surprise, and he shuns danger, while the other courts it, or deliberately weighs the probability of loss against that of gain.

Another prejudice against legitimate speculation in trade has arisen from its supposed effects in creating an unnecessary enhancement of price, to the detriment of the consumers. This is a mistake; the speculator cannot raise prices unnecessarily, without injuring himself more than those who buy of him. To prove that he cannot, I will take the strongest case, and one in which he is most frequently exposed to popular odium, the grain and flour trade. It is for the interest of the community that each crop should be distributed equally throughout the country and throughout the year. The business of the grain-merchant is to equalize the supplies, and the more equal and perfect that he makes this distribution, the larger is his profit. His interest, then, even in years of the greatest scarcity, is exactly coincident with that of the consumers. If the deficiency be very great, he sends to foreign countries for an additional supply, and thus contributes effect

« AnteriorContinuar »