croach upon the full measure of administrative power enjoyed by the autonomous colonies, as this title could imply a more formal body, possessing an advisory and deliberative character whose decisions the colonies might be swayed by popular feeling into accepting, even against their own better judgment. Before leaving Canada he proclaimed her trade policy to be "British preference and not American reciprocity"; in London his inflexible hostility to her "being drawn into the vortex of European militarism" was as manifest as ever. She accepts the protection of the British Navy for the argosies which carry her commerce across the ocean (Canada's mercantile marine being the fourth largest in the world, nearly equal to that of Japan, and greater than those of Russia and Spain), without contributing anything in men, money, or material toward the upkeep of that mighty ocean patrol but for which she would be at the mercy of the veriest freebooting state. Some 25 per cent. of her water-borne commerce has no connection with the British Isles, and were she independent she would be obliged to maintain an adequate naval force herself; whereas, though she has been talking for six years of forming a naval reserve, nothing has yet come of it. Her military outlook is little better. She took over, it is true, the garrison HON. SIR FREDERICK W. BORDEN. HON. WILLIAM STEVEN FIELDING. ing of Halifax last year, but has been unable to enlist men of her own to maintain the regiments at strength, and is driven to importing British time-expired regulars for the purpose, and the whole expenditure of her militia department is but $5,400,000, or 90 cents per head. One section of her politicians contends that she needs neither army nor navy, because the Monroe Doctrine will protect her from European aggression, and that as she and Uncle Sam have lived side by side in peace for ninety years war between them is unthinkable; but another class urges that America and Britain were on the verge of conflict eleven years ago, when President Cleveland issued his famous Venezuela message, and that Canada would have been overrun almost ere a shot was fired. Still, Sir Wilfrid Laurier, after the Alaskan award, demanded treaty-making powers for Canada, though such would imply the strength to enforce the treaty, a strength which Canada certainly does not possess. The question naturally suggests itself: "What is the explanation of these inconsistencies?" It cannot be disloyalty, for no one now supposes that any annexation spirit exists in Canada, while in the Northwest, where a score of tongues are spoken in every (Minister of Militia and Defense and leader of the township, laws are enacted for the compul opposition in Parliament.) sory flying of the Union Jack above the schoolhouses. Nor is it likely that independ- evident. Laurier seems to have concluded ence is desired, for the allegiance of the that this can best be stimulated by making Canadian leaders and people is not chal- Canada self-contained, by discouraging toc lenged, and "cutting the painter" would close a commercial intimacy with Washing bring many burdens with it which Canada ton on the one side; and by promoting trade might well hesitate to assume. Is it fear of with Britain and assisting immigration from the United States? It can scarcely be this, Britain, on the other hand, without arous for while Canada is distrustful of American ing any bitterness among inhabitants of diplomacy and thinks that she has been sacri- French or Irish descent, or the transplanted ficed in every arbitral essay conducted by American elements in the Northwest which Britain on her behalf,-as witness Laurier's substantial contributions toward imperial dedeclaration at the Bryce banquet in Ottawa fense would assuredly evoke. that Canada had no reason to thank British plenipotentiaries from the post-bellum treaty of 1783 to the Alaskan award of 1903! -yet there is his utterance in the Canadian Parliament a few days before: "We mean to settle all our difficulties with that nation by peaceful means, by diplomatic action, by negotiation, but never by the arbitrament of war." In my humble judgment Laurier's at titude expresses the matured and prudent policy of a sagacious statesman who desires his country to progress in the arts of peace to a stage when it will be possible for her, if necessary, to undertake large military and naval expenditures without crippling herself or impeding the task of fully establishing the national status which she is now achieving. For it must be admitted that she is to-day a nation in all but name, a lusty young giant whose growth promises to excel even that of the mighty republic beside her, now that the boundless and various resources of the vast Northwest are becoming more widely known and settlers attracted there by thousands. Canada's area is greater than that of the United States, and her present population, 6,000,000, twice that of the thirteen revolting colonies in 1776. Only lately, though, has she burst her swaddling clothes, as while her prairies were traversed by the Canadian Pacific Railway, twenty years ago, the past seven comprises her really marked advance. The population of her Northwest has grown from 419,572 in 1901, to 808,863 in 1906; 200,000 Americans have settled there during those years, and of 300,000 immigrants expected this year one-third are Americans, hurrying to establish themselves in that promised land. The "Americanization" of the Northwest has been a favorite theme for some observers. That it will bring about a rejection of British sovereignty may be doubted, but that it will necessitate careful handling to promote a truly Canadian national spirit is Laurier well knows that Canada's market is of steadily increasing importance to the United States, being her third best customer after Britain and Germany. Canadians acclaim their country the richest in the world to-day; her foreign trade, per capita of the population, is two and one-half times as great as that of the United States, and she has no war debt, no pension roll, no costly navy, and but a small military outlay. Moreover, she is not essentially a manufacturing country, though she is steadily becoming so, as the Census of 1900 shows that the output of her factories (employing five or more hands) was valued that year at $481,000,000, or within $30,000,000 of the combined worth of the agricultural, dairying, mineral, forest, and fishing industries of the Dominion. Her great asset to-day is her wheat; out of 171,000,000 acres of wheatlands in the Northwest only 7 per cent. are yet under cultivation, and they produce 200,000,000 bushels of grain per year against a total United States wheat crop of 735,000,000, while it is predicted that within ten years Canada will quadruple her present output, when her two new transcontinental railways are completed and new areas opened up for cultivation. Of A country which is becoming rich at this rate is a liberal purchaser, and Canada's total imports, which took their first big bound in 1898 from $106,000,000 to $126,000,000, had reached $283,000,000 in 1906, an increase of 167 per cent. in eight years. these $173,000,000 were dutiable and $110,000,000 free, a circumstance which accounts both for the remarkable expansion in her manufactures, and also for the equanimity with which she meets an adverse "balance of trade" or excess of imports over exports of nearly $40,000,000, since that represents raw material. The United States has been the greatest beneficiary by Canada's enhanced prosperity, and American sales to Canada have increased from $75,000,000 in 1898 to $168,000,000 in 1906, representing 60 per DIAGRAM SHOWING THE TOTAL TRADE, IMPORTS, AND EXPORTS OF THE DOMINION OF CANADA, FROM 1868 TO 1907. cent. of the total import in both cases, while the imports from Britain, despite a tariff reduction or preference" of 333 per cent. in favor of British goods, have only increased from $32,000,000 to $69,000,000, being but 25 per cent. of the whole in each case. These figures luminously demonstrate how little diplomatic or sentimental issues affect the trend of trade, for while the British preference lessens Canada's customs duties by $5,000,000 a year, it does not stimulate imports from Britain, nor has the anger of Canada over the Alaskan boundary lessened purchases from the United States. Trade does not "follow the flag" in this instance, for in the past fifty years Canada's imports from Great Britain have declined from 56 to 25 per cent., while those from America have increased from 33 to 60 per cent., the decline in the one case and the advance in the other being steady and continuous throughout the whole period, regardless of their various political relations. OBSTACLES IN THE WAY OF CANADIAN AMERICAN TRADE. In the light of this record, maintained for such a period, amid such diverse conditions, it cannot be seriously supposed that nowadays, with the increase of railroad and steamboat communication between them and the territory is continuous, the tendency of America and Canada to trade more generally will be overcome, or even seriously checked. Reciprocity undoubtedly would enlarge Uncle Sam's sales, especially of manufactures, in Canada, and certain Canadian raw materials, such as coal, hides, lumber, etc., would be more quickly absorbed in the United States. But reciprocity received its death blow at the Bryce banquet already referred to, when Sir Wilfrid Laurier proclaimed that Canada no longer desired it, would make no further pilgrimages to Washington, and held firmly to her trade policy of a preference to Britain. This declaration. was doubtless intended as an answer to the American press reports which credited Ambassador Bryce with conveying proposals from Secretary Root for the settling of all outstanding differences, with an offer of reciprocity for a common tariff against the world. The idea of Canada accepting such terms now was scouted by her press, but she actu-' ally offered these herself in 1871 and they were rejected; while George Brown, the great Ontario Liberal, resigned from the Ottawa cabinet at that time because he considered Canada was demeaning herself by the proposal. A generation later we find Wilfrid Laurier, the great Quebec Liberal, whatever, and asserting Canada's intention but the Senate was adamant. American to continue on her magnificently progressive fishing interests were, however, suffering, career entirely indifferent to Uncle Sam's and a fishery compact was concluded, Amertariff wall. This is the more remarkable ica paying $5,500,000 for a twelve years' enbecause Sir Wilfrid Laurier, like Sir Robert joyment of Canada's (including NewfoundBond, of Newfoundland, was an avowed land) inshore fishing privileges. In 1887, reciprocitarian, championed it on many plat- after the United States again abrogated this, forms and led "pilgrimages" to Washing- another fishery treaty was framed, but the ton in the endeavor to secure it. But, re- Senate stifled it. A modus vivendi was arbuffed in this and outwitted in the Joint ranged then for two years, but on various High Commission in 1898, he is now able pretexts was continued with Newfoundland to assert his country's new position with until 1905, when she discarded it, and firmness and dignity, conscious that the fu- though it is still in force in Canada a recent ture will more than vindicate his words. debate at Ottawa showed that its years are For Newfoundland, with but virtually one numbered even there. Incidentally it is inindustry, her fisheries, in which she has structive to note that the fisheries of marino competitor on equal terms, reciprocity time Canada were valued last year at $14,would be of great benefit, because she would 200,000, while those of New England only secure a market of 80,000,000 people for her yielded $12,500,000; and that all the fisheroutput, but Canada has outgrown the need ies of the United States, with 83,000,000 of reciprocity with her prodigious vitality people, are worth but $57,727,717, while and amazing expansion; and, hence, for the those of Canada, with only 6,000,000 people, loss of any material benefit it might bring to are worth $29,479,562,-exclusive of Newthe United States that country has only her- foundland, which, with but 230,000 people, self to blame, because she would not close possesses fisheries worth $10,000,000. with the offer when it was made to her. WHERE CANADA HAS BEEN TO BLAME. She was the greatest gainer by every such compact in the past, and yet was always the one to call for their abrogation. The reciprocity treaty of 1854 was cancelled by her in 1866, though within that period the interchange of traffic between them increased from $33,000,000 a year to $84,000,000, the aggregate being $650,000, while the balance of trade against Canada therein was between $80,000,000 and $100,000,000. Canada's population in 1860, midway through that period, was but 2,750,000, and that of the United States 31,000,000, and yet even then Canada's purchases from her were enormous, -greater than those of all the minor countries of the world combined. They included $150,000,000 of foreign products, as much more of American merchandise; $24,000 of miscellaneous articles and $9,000,000 of lumber. In addition the United States had 203,000 tons of shipping, crewed by 28,000 men, engaged in the fisheries in Canadian waters and producing annually $14,000,000 worth, while in 1869, three years after the treaty expired, the tonnage declined to 62,000. In 1871, when negotiations were resumed, Canada offered most liberal concessions, including the assimilation of her customs duties with those of the United States and the free use of her canals by American shipping, Pilgrimages to Washington were made at intervals between 1890 and 1898, when the Joint High Commission was formed, to consider a series of twelve issues. But it proved futile, and when, after the Alaskan boundary was adjusted, in 1903, Senator Fairbanks proposed its reassembling, Sir Wilfrid Laurier declined the suggestion. However, with the settlement of this Alaskan issue, the last territorial dispute between the two countries was wiped off the slate, and though a dozen or more problems yet remain unsolved, they are, in the main, quasi-industrial, like the Atlantic fishery, Pacific sealing, and Lake gunboat issues, and the lesser subjects of Niagara preservation, use of waterways, transit of merchandise, alien labor laws, reciprocal mining, salvage and wreckage rights, and cognate matters,-none of which, certainly, is grave enough to warrant even the thought of friction. MR. BRYCE INAUGURATES A NEW ERA. Accordingly, British and American statesmen have felt the time opportune to endeavor to dispel the bitterness which has existed since the Alaskan award, and Earl Grey's visit to Washington a year ago and to New York last month, Secretary Root's to Ottawa last January, and Mr. Bryce's, the first ever made by a British Ambassador at Washington,-to Canada, recently, were admittedly made to promote a more |