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FEDUCTION OF POPULATION RESULTING FROM DEPARTURE OF THE FOREIGN BORN AND NATIVE BORN OF FOREIGN PARENTS-1900.
verely by these sweeping changes in population population. New York, from its boasted form two general classes: The newer rural eminence of 3,500,000 inhabitants at the States, and those States which are distinctly twelfth census, would shrink to less than urban. In the former, located in the West 800,000, yet still remain the most populous and Northwest, the population would be re- city. Philadelphia's population would be cut duced approximately half, or more than half; in half; Chicago would lose nearly fourin the latter class, New York, Massachusetts, fifths; Boston would decline from more than Pennsylvania, and Illinois would be the prin- half a million to approximately 150,000; cipal sufferers. These States would be crip- while Milwaukee would sink from near the pled almost as severely as the rural West. 300,000 mark to less than 50,000, or to but little more than one-sixth of her total population. These facts faintly suggest the disturbance of the population equilibrium, especially in the urban centers of the North and West, which would result from the exodus of the foreigner and the children of foreigners. In this branch of the subject even the
DEPLETION OF CITY POPULATION.
It is in the large cities, however, that the departure of the foreigner would be most severely felt. In the thirty largest cities in the Union persons native-born of native parents formed in 1900 but 33 per cent. of the total
THE THREE POPULATION ELEMENTS IN CITIES HAVING MORE THAN HALF A MILLION INHABITANTS
Southern States would be mildly interested, since in the cities are located practically all the foreign element resident in those States.
SLOW INCREASE OF NATIVE STOCK.
It is obvious that we have now made serious inroads upon the population of most of the States and all of the large cities by the departure of one-third of the total population. Such wholesale loss at once creates SOlicitude concerning repopulation. Does the present rate of increase in the native white stock give assurance of ability to make good the loss sustained by the departure of the foreigner and his children?
No branch of statistics possesses such serious importance for the United States as the birth-rate, but unfortunately little definite information about it exists, and still less is known of the proportion of births contributed by the various elements of the population. The Census percentage of increase in the class "native whites of native parents" (19.2) must be promptly discarded, for the census is concerned solely with classification, and ignores the fact that the increase in 1900 in native whites of native parentage was composed not only of the children of persons so classed in 1890, but also of the offspring of the native whites of foreign parentage. Therefore the percentage of increase in natives of native parents, to be accurate, must be computed on the combined base. So computed, the true increase of the native-born of native parents was:
per cent. increase is really the product of two unequal percentages, that contributed by the semi-foreign element being somewhat higher, and that contributed by the native stock somewhat lower, possibly not over 10 or 12 per cent.
It is unlikely that both elements,-native stock and native-born of foreign parents,contribute their increase in exactly the same proportion (13.3). Such facts as are known concerning the birth-rate in native, semi-foreign, and foreign stock indicate a somewhat higher rate in the class native-born of foreign parentage than in the strictly native class.
The only census inquiry concerning grandparents which has been made in the United States was that undertaken at the State census of Michigan in 1894. It was there shown that the stock native for two generations reported a birth-rate of approximately 13 per 1000. As the death-rate is estimated to have been about 12 per 1000 for that element, this indicates a decade increase in native population of approximately 1 per cent., and tends to confirm the suggestion that the rate of increase in the native stock in all the States outside of the Southern group already mentioned is in reality much less than seems to be indicated by the census figures. The proportion of increase unquestionably varies. in different sections: In New England, even the census classification (which, it will be remembered, swells the so-called native-born of native parents by including the offspring of the semi-foreign element) shows an absolute loss in total natives wherever resident of approximately 50,000, and in the South, unvexed by the foreign element, the percentage of increase in native whites has steadily di-minished from 28.3 in 1880 to 18.5 in 1900. It appears, indeed, to be generally admitted by those most familiar with the subject, that the distinctly native element is either stationary or decreasing, except in the Southern States. The writer was recently assured by oldest and largest States of the Union that the registrar of vital statistics for one of the the birth-rate and death-rate of the native element in his State were both approximately 14 per 1000, indicating, in that Commonwealth at least, a stationary native popula
sion of this subject tends speedily to approxiAgain, it is frankly admitted that discusmations, and leads even the most conscientious student to the fascinating but forbidden field of hypothesis and theory. It is a fact, however, suggestive and perhaps ominous, that practically all the rates of increase here introduced are on a declining scale. If the native stock is now increasing, the increase is obviously at a very slow rate, and it seems improbable, from the facts presented, that the natives of genuinely native parentage could replace the millions whom we have
has been raised concerning the ability of the occupation that the proportions contributed native stock to perpetuate itself.* by the native white and foreign elements were as follows:
EFFECT UPON OCCUPATIONS.
It remains to consider the effect which the exodus of the foreign element would have upon occupations.
At the last census the number of persons gainfully employed was slightly in excess of 29,000,000, or exactly half the total popula
tion ten years of age and over, but the propor-
Thus less than half of the native white element, and more than half of the combined foreign element (52.7), was enrolled in the great army of American workers. It must be remembered, however, that women of foreign birth, or foreign parentage, are especially numerous in domestic service, mill work, and similar classes of employment, but that women of the native stock are not generally thus engaged. Moreover, the "leisure class," whatever its number, occurs principally in the native element, and doubtless exerts some influence upon the proportion gainfully occupied. Consideration of this branch of the subject depends upon a clear understanding, at the outset, of the present distribution of the various elements of population at work above the age of ten years. This is shown in the following summary:
Farmers, florists, ranchers, etc.
Soldiers, sailors, etc.
parents. 13,875,329 3,581,004
Native white Foreign of of native foreign parents. parents. 55.1 44.9
Foreign and native-born of foreign parents. 11,037,742
So generous is the contribution of the foreigner to many classes of occupations that the departure of that element would completely disarrange, in many States, the proportion of persons gainfully employed. The native Americans, generally composing the so-called prosperous and influential classes, in many communities would not be balanced by workers in humbler callings. Mines and quarries would lose two-thirds of their workers; approximately the same proportion of the servant class would disappear, as would also considerably more than half of the 10,000,000 wage-earners absolutely essential to all the manifold activities of complex modern life, leaving a native white remnant and the
Negro. 3,992,337 204,666
226,341 1,890,850 16,581
Proportion lost by departure of foreign element.
49.4 8.5 52.3
Somewhat more than one-third of all the workers of the nation would thus be lost by the exodus of the foreign element. The loss, however, as indicated by the table, is very unequally distributed. Omitting the Southern States before mentioned, the loss elsewhere of workers is 48 per cent. Comparison obviously should be confined, however, to the white race. It appears upon classification by ture of the foreign element would be close "The rate of childbirth has been decreasing upon half of the total number. In fact, of among the native American born of our. all the classes of occupations, agriculture and the professions alone would be comparatively little affected by the departure of the foreign
negro to build houses, and do work upon the
being less than it is in any other country, France not even excepted, which has
The American population is not holding its own, it is not reproducing itself."-Engelmann, element.
Popular Science, June, 1903.
These two exceptions signify much. The two geographical divisions the departure of great army of workers of foreign birth or the foreigner would depopulate nearly half parentage appears to be largely industrial. the farms and would seriously reduce the Is not this the secret of the marvellous ad- number of lawyers, doctors, and clergymen. vance of the United States during the period Indeed, in a few of the States the reduction from 1880 to 1900? It should be remem- would result almost in the elimination of bered that the foreign element discussed in these two groups of occupations. this paper is largely the product by immigration or birth of that twenty-year period; analysis thus shows it to be a vast army of workers, the potentiality of which has been proved by events to be practically limitless.
The proportion of the foreign element which is engaged in agricultural and professional pursuits is shown by the table to be insignificant. Is this small proportion uniformly distributed, or does the foreigner, even in these callings, preponderate in some localities?
Although such fluctuations are interesting and important as showing the extent to which communities would be crippled by the departure of the foreign element, the fact remains that the changes which have been in progress in the American body politic thus far have not materially affected the general supremacy of the native stock over the soil. To a less degree the native continues to lead in those callings which especially require exercise of the brain or marked creative and executive ability. In consequence, untold possibilities have been placed in the hands of a race singularly qualified to employ them effectively. The projection of railway systems, great manufacturing plants, and vast enterprises, both public and private, have been the work, for the most part, of the native American brain, but the execution,-the raw-material brawn,-has been, and continues to be, principally foreign or of foreign parentage. The present phenomenal prosperity of the nation may be regarded as the
New England. So. N. Atlantic. South Atlantic.. North Central. South Central. Western
Native Foreign Native Foreign
72.9 27.1 66.6 33.4
Here is a surprising variation in the two groups of occupations which, upon the basis of totals alone, appear to contain a very small