Occupational statements in the Handbook use one of six adjectives to describe projected change in employment. (See figure on page 2.) The adjectives are based on numerical projections developed using the Bureau's employment projections model system. The employment projections are the final output of the system, which also projects the size and composition of the labor force, the level of gross national product (GNP)—sales to all final consuming sectors in the economy-the total output of goods and services by industry, and employment by industry. A full description, including numerical projections of employment, appears in the November 1991 Monthly Labor Review, and in Outlook: 1990-2005, BLS Bulletin 2402. The Fall 1991 Occupational Outlook Quarterly presents the projections in a series of charts.

The projections reflect the knowledge and judgment of the staff of the Bureau's Office of Employment Projections, who prepared them, and of knowledgeable people from other offices in the Bureau, other government agencies, colleges and universities, industries, unions, professional societies, and trade associations, who furnished data and information, prepared reports, or reviewed the projections. The Bureau, of course, takes full responsibility for them.

Assumptions. Because the future course of the economy is uncertain, the Bureau prepared three scenarios of future economic growth, with varying assumptions about growth of the labor force, output, productivity, inflation, and unemployment. The information in the Handbook is based on the moderate-growth scenario, which is characterized by slightly higher productivity growth than in the past, slowing labor force growth, a roughly constant unemployment rate, and an improving foreign trade situation. Other assumptions include real cuts in defense spending, relatively slow growth in spending on cars and trucks, and little increase in spending on gasoline and oil. Spending on food and beverages will grow more slowly than the average for all consumer expenditures, while spending on health care and other services, such as entertainment, recreation, and financial services, will grow faster. Investment in production equipment, including that for factory automation, communication, and computer items, will grow rapidly. Construction is expected to increase more slowly than during the 1980's.

While the Bureau considers these assumptions reasonable, the economy may well follow a different course, resulting in a different pattern of occupational growth. Growth also could be different from that projected here because most occupations are sensitive to a much wider variety of factors than those considered in the various models. Unforeseen changes in consumer, business, or government spending patterns and in the way goods and services are produced could greatly alter the growth of individual occupations.

Methods. This section summarizes the steps by which the Bureau arrives at projections of employment by occupation.

BLS uses Bureau of the Census projections of the population by age, sex, and race, combined with projections of labor force participation rates, to arrive at estimates of the civilian labor force.

The projections of the labor force and assumptions about other demographic variables, fiscal policy, foreign economic activity, and energy prices and availability form the input to the macroeconomic model. This model provides a balanced and internally consistent rep

resentation of the U.S. economy. It projects GNP and the distribution of GNP by its major demand components-consumer expenditures, investment, government, and net exports. These are broken down by detailed component, such as health or housing. The resulting estimates of demand for goods and services are used, in conjunction with detailed input-output tables, to project industry output of final products as well as of products required in the production process-total output by industry.

Industry output of goods and services is then converted to industry employment. Studies of trends in productivity and technology are used to estimate future output per worker hour, and regression analysis is used to estimate worker hours. These estimates, along with output projections, are used to develop the final industry employment projections.

An industry-occupation matrix is used to project employment for wage and salary workers. The matrix shows occupational staffing patterns each occupation as a percent of the work force in every industry. It includes 258 detailed industries and 507 detailed occupations. Data for current staffing patterns in the matrix come primarily from the Bureau's Occupational Employment Statistics surveys, which collect data from employers on a 3-year cycle.

The occupational staffing patterns for each industry were projected based on anticipated changes in the way goods and services are produced, then applied to projected industry employment, and the resulting employment summed across industries to get total wage and salary employment by occupation. Using this method, employment is projected to grow faster than average in those occupations concentrated in fast-growing industries and more slowly in slow-growing industries. For example, health care workers are expected to grow rapidly, as the health care industries grow rapidly. Employment in an occupation may also grow or decline as a result of changes in the way industries produce goods and services. For example, automation causes employment of some engineers, technicians, and computer specialists to grow faster than the average for all occupations and become a larger proportion of the work force in most industries. It causes employment of some clerical workers, machine operators, and assemblers to increase more slowly-or even decline—and lowers their proportion of the work force. The projected-year matrix incorporates these expected changes.

In some cases, employment was projected using an independent variable rather than the model. For example, projections of school enrollments and class size were used to project employment of elementary and secondary school teachers.

Data on self-employed workers in each occupation come from the Current Population Survey. Self-employed workers were projected separately.

Replacement needs. Replacement openings occur as people leave occupations. Some individuals transfer to other occupations as a step up the career ladder or to change careers. Some stop working temporarily, perhaps to return to school or care for a family. And some leave the labor force permanently-retirees, for example. In most occupations, replacement needs provide more job openings than does growth. A discussion of replacements, including separation rates for selected occupations, is presented in Occupational Projections and Training Data, 1992 Edition, BLS Bulletin 2401.

Oklahoma

Director, Research Division, Oklahoma Employment Security Commission, 308 Will Rogers Memorial Ofc. Bldg., Oklahoma City, OK 73105. Phone: (405) 557-7116.

Executive Director, Oklahoma Occupational Information Coordinating Committee, Department of Voc/Tech Education, 1500 W. 7th Ave., Stillwater, OK 74074. Phone: (405) 743-5198.

Oregon

Assistant Administrator for Research and Statistics, Oregon Employment Division, 875 Union St. NE., Salem, OR 97311. Phone: (503) 378-3220.

Executive Director, Oregon Occupational Information Coordinating Committee, 875 Union St. NE., Salem, OR 97311. Phone: (503) 378-8146.

Pennsylvania

Director, Research and Statistics Division, Pennsylvania Department of Labor and Industry, 1216 Labor and Industry Building, Harrisburg, PA 17121. Phone: (717) 787-3265.

Director, Pennsylvania Occupational Information Coordinating Committee, Pennsylvania Department of Labor and Industry, 1224 Labor and Industry Bldg., Harrisburg, PA 17120. Phone: (717) 787-8646.

Puerto Rico

Director, Research and Statistics Division, Puerto Rico Department of Labor and Human Resources, 505 Munoz Rivera Ave., 20th Floor, Hato Rey, PR 00918. Phone: (809) 754-5385.

Executive Director, Puerto Rico Occupational Information Coordinating Committee, 202 Del Cristo St., P.O. Box 6212, San Juan, PR 00936-6212. Phone: (809) 723-7110.

Rhode Island

Administrator, Labor Market Information and Management Services, Rhode Island Department of Employment and Training, 101 Friendship St., Providence, RI 02903-3740. Phone: (401) 277-3730.

Director, Rhode Island Occupational Information Coordinating Committee, 22 Hayes St., Room 133, Providence, RI 02908. Phone: (401) 272-0830.

South Carolina

Director, Labor Market Information, South Carolina Employment Security Commission, P.O. Box 995, Columbia, SC 29202. Phone: (803) 737-2660. Director, South Carolina Occupational Information Coordinating Committee, 1550 Gadsden St., P.O. Box 995, Columbia, SC 29202. Phone: (803) 7372733.

South Dakota

Director, Labor Information Center, South Dakota Department of Labor, P.O. Box 4730, Aberdeen, SD 57402-4730. Phone: (605) 622-2314.

Director, South Dakota Occupational Information Coordinating Committee, South Dakota Department of Labor, 420 South Roosevelt St., P.O. Box 4730, Aberdeen, SD 57402-4730. Phone: (605) 622-2314.

Tennessee

Director, Research and Statistics Division, Tennessee Department of Employment Security, 500 James Robertson Pkwy., 11th Floor, Nashville, TN 372451000. Phone: (615) 741-2284.

Director, Tennessee Occupational Information Coordinating Committee, 500 James Robertson Pkwy., 11th Floor Volunteer Plaza, Nashville, TN 37219. Phone: (615) 741-6451.

Texas

Director, Economic Research and Analysis, Texas Employment Commission, 15th and Congress Ave., Room 208T, Austin, TX 78778. Phone: (512) 463

2616.

Chief, Research and Analysis, Virgin Islands Department of Labor, P.O. Box 3159, St. Thomas, VI 00801. Phone: (809) 776-3700.

Coordinator, Virgin Islands Occupational Information Coordinating Committee, P.O. Box 3359, St. Thomas, VI 00801. Phone: (809) 776-3700. Washington

Labor Market Information, Washington Employment Security Department, 212 Maple Park, Mail Stop KG-11, Olympia, WA 98504-5311. Phone: (206) 753-5114.

Director, Washington Occupational Information Coordinating Committee, 212 Maple Park, MS KG-11, Olympia, WA 98504-5311. Phone: (206) 438-4803. West Virginia

Assistant Director, Labor and Economic Research, West Virginia Bureau of Employment Programs, 112 California Ave., Charleston, WV 25305-0112. Phone: (304) 348-2660.

Executive Director, West Virginia Occupational Information Coordinating Committee, One Dunbar Plaza, Suite E, Dunbar, WV 25064. Phone: (304) 293-5314.

Wisconsin

Director, Labor Market Information Bureau, Wisconsin Department of Industry, Labor, and Human Relations, 201 East Washington Ave., Room 221, P.O. Box 7944, Madison, WI 53707. Phone: (608) 266-5843.

Administrative Director, Wisconsin Occupational Information Coordinating Council, Division of Employment and Training Policy, 201 East Washington Ave., P.O. Box 7972, Madison, WI 53707. Phone: (608) 266-8012.

Wyoming

Manager, Research and Planning, Division of Administration, Wyoming Department of Employment, P.O. Box 2760, Casper, WY 82602. Phone: (307) 235-3646.

Executive Director, Wyoming Occupational Information Coordinating Council, Post Office Box 2760, 100 West Midwest, Casper, WY 82602. Phone: (307) 235-3642.